I'm sure you ARE well-informed -- even what I perceived to be a post with a hidden agenda (your last one) left me in little doubt about that.... However, I still believe that your putdown of the investors & analysts implying that CCBI is not wildly over-rated -- far from it, that it represents a good buy at these levels -- is unbearably superficial. I'm not in awe of analysts, but THB (I believe those are its initials) IS a long-term, long-time, well-inf'd bank stock player; look what their position was like as of 3/31 and then 6/30. Ditto, FBR.
Growth is worth less than crazies think and more than folks like yourself give it. Banks buy earnings and growth, and Calif. is different, not just in entertainment and wine. That is, both in-state predators and out-of-state ones don't apply Connecticut thinking (and rightly so) when they appraise the worth of a business like CCBI's.
Again, your post (with a hostile, defensive edge) leaves me very much in doubt as to your motivation and objectivity -- perhaps unfairly, I'll certainly admit.
If you either quit on CCBI at $15 or have shorted it since, you're probably doin' a fair share of, "It ain't fair, it ain't right." ... Maybe, time will vindicate you; I'm VERY comfortable betting the other way
a few chews for you: 1. my agenda is overt and comprehensive; nothing machiavellian here... and a long way from your view that it is a good long because it is going up, [some] analysts like it,
2. i live in so cal and have since 1971. i have lived through 3 realty bubbles during that time, the first 2 of which busted badly (especially apartments and commercial/office). your reference to conn must be that you live there...
3. no real bank or thrift will have any interest in this doll anywhere near these levels for the reasons stated earlier; rather, expect to see them use rich currency, if they can move quick enough, to buy someone else who thinks the best days of the cycles are past,
4. uncle to you on owning a thrift that is already accorded one of the highest valuations in the history of cal. thrifts. if this gets to $30 in the current froth, it will be trading at over 7x hard book; that is ridiculous.
5. friedman and sandler did this ipo "syndication" and, together with roth, are and have the pocket investors.
6. legit, sustainable growth stories are few and fleeting. you really should read bill oneil's (probably the greatest growth proponent in history) latest book and focus on the due diligence parts about understanding the business, mgmt, sustainable business niche(s), and so on. growth and momentum investing in the hands of ill-informed, complacent investors starts to be defined as "momentum in stock price."
stay tuned for when all the newcomers head for the exit!
Ok, I'll chew on your points, many of which SOUND sensible and may be same. I've made my points, you yours.... I actually started betting that we were in "bubble-land" last year, shorting a few bank stocks in/near NY in that I kind of agree with you that realty prices are INSANE.
Obviously, I don't know Calif., but I think I've come around to the belief that we've undergone a "paradigm shift," where renting is perceived to be as indefensible as keeping one's money inside a mattress.
There comes a point -- MAYBE -- where "fighting the tape," as it were, is akin to that Danish (?) King who thought he could issue an order to the incoming tide and (I think) drowned for the obvious reason. The other 2 bank stocks I own now are much more modestly valued than CCBI, I'll admit.... I hate to "bank" on a "greater fool" thesis, but Citigroup is/was the consummate "value player" until they bought Calfed. We'll see whether CCBI buys, is bought or neither.
Guess we gotta agree to disagree and see what happens. I'll only reiterate that the numbers projected (I hear you as to your belief that those estimates border on bogus) for CCBI's revenue and earnings growth are "eye-popping." Warren Buffet is thought of as a "value" investor, but he wasn't looking at cash per share when he bought (VERY successfully) Coca Cola. CCBI has more than a couple of letters in common with that "play...." When apples are compared to apples I'm sure we agree what should happen, but the price per pound for watermelon is different (and appropriately so) than that for kiwis.
(Of course, you didn't address my point about THOMSON HORSTMANN & BRYANT's 1.2 MM share position -- up from half that 3 months ago -- because it wasn't convenient to do so.... And if Mr. O'Neil counsels what you quoted him as counseling and you DON'T see why WSBK is worth every penny of its current share price, you talk the talk without walking the walk.)
Peace, bro' -- in 11 1/2 hours, let the games begin again!