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Prosperity Bancshares Inc. Message Board

  • bearatologist bearatologist Oct 30, 1998 11:04 PM Flag

    gwy

    it looks like your options are doing well.
    congratulations there.

    i've continued to stay out of pb;
    with FY99 estimates trending towards $1.15, i think
    the stock is still considerably overvalued where it
    is now, and i would not be surprised to see it back
    around 15.

    i'm not so hot on ctea now either,
    though. i'm worried about increasing commoditization of
    the herbal supplements market. my picks for the year
    ahead: csco, dacg, emis, and ionay (not a food/bev stock
    in the bunch, i'm afraid).

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    • Still disagree on PB, but that's what makes a
      market. Time will tell. Market seemed to expect earnings
      - most recent analyst estimate was .13, so no
      dramatic movement in stock price there, so far. Brazil's
      ability to follow through will be important to the region
      as a whole, so we'll see. Region is still not
      condemned to a major recession, IMHO, despite some fears to
      the contrary. Brazil, though, seems resigned to one
      negative growth year. Venezuala is still going to be a
      function of oil prices. Brazil's ability to follow through
      on its budget, currency, IMF relationships, will
      obviously be a major influence on the region, and on PB
      stock...

      Congrats on PZZA, that one seems to be doing quite well.
      Do I gather you're out of it, for now?

      Watch
      out for CSCO - it's one I do follow. Definitely the
      market leader, tough to go too far wrong with it, and
      it's still trading at good value, now. I do sell puts
      (or covered call plays) on it a lot, but don't
      currently own any stock. CSCO owns the enterprise market
      but is not doing well in the carrier market, at all.
      Great management, though, perhaps the best CEO in the
      world. But if NT manages to digest BAY successfully, and
      if LU picks up a company like ASND or NN, CSCO could
      be in trouble (tough to maintain those growth rates
      without the carrier segment).

      I'm hedging a lot,
      but most of my money long money in that sector, for
      next year, is on ASND. ASND, even by itself is giving
      CSCO a run for its money in the carrier segment. Other
      potential competitors could come out of nowhere, leveraging
      existing carrier relationships (e.g., Siemans, ERICY, ALA,
      etc.). Caveat emptor. I would never bet against CSCO,
      but I'm not sure their upside is as significant as
      some of their competitors. Also check out XYLN, FORE,
      COMS, MRVC, and maybe even CS, if you want some more
      risky plays in the sector. Not recommending any, right
      now (three weeks ago, or so, I might've - hope that's
      when you picked up CSCO), but I'm just not as high on
      CSCO as most people seem to be. Was that CSCO
      announcement last week regarding a 25% growth rate a warning,
      future guidance, a slip of the tongue, or a minimum
      prediction? Just don't get that warm fuzzy...

      No
      knowledge of or opinions regarding your other picks, couple
      are below my cap threshhold. But good luck on them!


      FWIW (i.e., ~$.02)
      j

    • The fortunes of this company rest largly on what
      happens in Brazil. It looks like the IMF is going to loan
      them 30B to get their economy and currency back in
      line. Brazil is key to Latin American economies being
      so large. They havn't devalued their currency but
      have had to raise interest rates to 40% to avoid
      it.The rise in PB reflected the hope for Brazil.

 
PB
52.11-0.15(-0.29%)Apr 28 4:02 PMEDT