As one who reads this board quite often, I noticed you seem to have a pretty good knowledge of investing in the latin america region (along with a few others such as gregofuse) I was wondering if you would be willing to give me your opinion on this stock in the short term? For instance it seems most of the markets have recently rebounded somewhat, yet PB seems to have remained stuck around the low 20's high teens. I've bought this stock for a long term play however, I was curious on your opinion (along with others) on the short term outlook. Any comments, opinions would be appreciated. Poorboy
I generally don't give advice or make predictions. And I certainly don't qualify as an expert on investing in the region. I simply let people know my thoughts, actions, and positions.
Personally, I think the international investment community has over-reacted to perceived risks in Latin America. But that doesn't mean that there aren't genuine fundamental risks in each of the PB operating countries, exacerbated by volatile foreign exchange markets.
I don't think these risks will evaporate or resolve themselves in the short term. I do think the picture should be clearer, and more positive several months out (let's say Feb-Mar). I think the upside for PB is significantly more than the downside in the mid-term to long-term. In the very short-term, the downside risk and upside potential are probably closer to even, IMHO. Recall that we are over 40% up off recent lows; so I suspect we are in a period of consolidation in the low 20s, which seems reasonable.
I continue to be comfortable with my relatively large long-term PB holding, along with a substantial speculative PB holding.
I see the predictions I made about PB's near-term outlook four months ago were pretty much on target. You could have made a killing buying U.S. small caps (esp. tech/biotech) in early October; maybe you did with some of your other money. Or, you could have picked up CSCO for 49. :-)
Brazil may devalue it's currency, Venezuela may elect a communist as President, Honduras and Nicaragua have been devastated by Mitch. The sun no longer shines south of the boarder, the end is near. This is the perfect time to buy stock in this region. The valuations are at all time lows. Markets have lost 80% of their values. To buy in this climate is not for the weak of heart. But for the brave who step into the pit there will be great rewards. Buy and Hold the sun will come out tomorrow.