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K-V Pharmaceutical Company Message Board

  • axelmy axelmy Jun 1, 2011 7:36 AM Flag

    KV... common sense

    We retail investors can only guess if Makena sells or not and we won't be the first ones to know.

    For us it is reasonable to believe that Makena will sell enough to at least give KV a life line. Will makena become the blockbuster drug every pumper here belies... common sense will tell no and KV never thought about that either. Makena is a high margin niche product that could over time become very profitable, but certainly not in the first 12 months.

    KV is very quiet and goes about its business... leaving us small time investors guessing

    But here is where common sense tells at least me that KV is a screaming BUY.

    In May, institutions added 10-12M shares while the retail investors lost that share (probably being forced out; thanks sparky and serge). OrbiMed just announced their increase to 10% last friday.

    So DOES ANYBODY REALLY believe that the Big Boys invest just on a hunch and hope? Do you really believe these guys did not have long discussions with KV's investor relations to get a clear picture on KVs plans and sales figures? Remember they invested after the pricing debacle... and they invested 10-100M

    KV needs these institutions badly and certainly won't like to mess it up with them...

    Just think about their motivation for a moment and i guess you come to the same conclusion.... we will eventually trade north of 10-15 and that could be sooner than you think.

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    • sparky0495@rocketmail.com sparky0495 Jun 11, 2011 11:46 AM Flag

      it will trade above 10$, as you say....ONLY if the projected numbers are positive or we get a positive update soon. Otherwise the short position will just increase as it has over the past 3 months.

    • this could be a set up for a bounce last 1/2 hour very low volume pull price down.

    • stock got hit hard it has a FDA approved product big MM's don't add just for the fun of it. I wouldn't be shock to see it closing above 3.80 still over a hour of trading to go and all you need is volume. My problem is that my indicator is at 50/50 on hourly so I can't say with way it will move that would be guessing. On daily is showing up GLA

      When I make comments I'm looking at short time frames Day Trades. For longer time few days I could see 5-6 it has to pass 4 then you will get short squeeze.

    • If it trades sideways then my gut feeling tells me that it will head back to 2.5-3 with a few bursts like we have seen...

      but it could explode on any encouraging news.

      if one is not in now and can hold its probably a good time to get in...

      but also be aware, its a pharma, bio-tech and they are always high risks at these levels.

      Just ask those who went into XOMA,CTIC, ARNA and SQNM they all got burned badly and many lost a lot.... same goes for KV, too many got burned here and will be careful

    • we have wait and see on a daily chart it look very good I would have 99% buy in for few days. What worry me is hourly chart I don't know how low they will pull KV down or maybe we will have sideway move (I hope on it) once hourly changes I would let you know and you take it from there. Even if hourly changes is all about volume or news. GLA

    • Just from TA point of view I think Thursday and Friday will be very interesting. JMHO

    • Ax I did quick math OrbiMed will be on average 4.28-4.30 area with 7 million shares.

      • 1 Reply to walkiewiczlcc
      • Here you can do the math of the 10 top owners.
        Orbi med paid for its 3.5M shares 6M so if they got in at around 3 for another 3.5M then I would think the price they paid is about $4 on average. So OrbiMed may just have doubled down, but they would at least expect to get out at 8-10. Note that most Firms with a High turnover have bought in at above $6 and they probably got caught.

        Adding all up, the 10 top owners paid about $5.5 per share and given the shares shorted I would believe that at one point the stock will trade above 7 or $8 even with so so news.. However if sales disappoint be ready to sell once the we get above the $5.5 as the big guys will move on... they got caught IMO and have their capital parked right now.

        Name Shares Held Position Value
        Adage Capital Management, L.P. 3.0 M $17.7 M Moderate
        Bridger Management, LLC 1.3 M $8.0 M High
        Brody (Lawrence) 2.4 M $2.1 M Low
        Deerfield Management Company, ... 1.1 M $4.0 M High
        Dimensional Fund Advisors, LP 1.8 M $11.0 M Low
        Federated Investors, Inc. 1.5 M $9.2 M Moderate
        OrbiMed Advisors, LLC 3.5 M $21.0 M Moderate
        Partner Fund Management, L.L.C... 6.5 M $39.0 M High
        Susquehanna Financial Group, L... 2.9 M $17.5 M High
        Visium Capital Management 3.4 M $20.1 M High

    • Agree

    • I think you are correct ..

    • Agreed. I believe the approval of the blood test (Fall) for pregnant mothers to detect potential premature birth will be a boon for makena. The drug is specifically mentioned in the article. The price point and support by FDA will help