To highlight what I see:
Down Trend on the SPX, this is what I expect to happen next week and beyond. The color coded chart markings show a similar chart situation. Note the 10 DMA (blue) & 20 DMA (green dotted) are heading towards a possible bearish cross Monday.
"Too much cash being pumped in to let market go lower."
Maybe. Up until a couple of weeks ago, the fed didn't have to worry about the bond market, just the insolvent banking sector and the stock market.
But now that the bond market is tanking and 10 year yields soaring, that is their primary focus. The stock market is secondary, in the eyes of the fed, to the bond market. Not really even very close, in terms of importance.
I follow three chart guys and two are making the case for a higher move and one is saying the same as flight_ here. I will say all three are saying the next two days will tell the direction. If we break lower then that will be the trend for a while and if we break higher you can see 1300 on s&p by year end. I think we will know clearly a few hours in to trading on Monday.
I also think the market is so controlled and manipulated by the fed pumping money in to the system I truly do not see how it can go down? I don't really see how charts work based on historical moves since we are not going through anything we have ever seen before? The Fed wants to pump up the market and create a "wealth affect" to carry this country through the very rough patch he knows we are heading in to. Problem is that he is turning the "rough patch" in to a monsterous crater with the bubble he's creating. When this thing does finally go down I want to be as far away from holding anything long as you can be.
forget the $SPX for a moment and look at the current market leaders, $TRAN & $SOX. if the market is going to actually pull back, then these two will begin to exhibit weakness. currently they look very strong.
there is also strength showing up in other key sectors, including retail/PMR.
$NAMO may very well rise above zero on Monday followed by $NYMO on Tuesday.
it's very risky to short an index that is closing above its 20MA with its RSI above 50 and rising.
I agree it can be risky. But the what about the finacials? And the headline risk? http://trendriding.com/2010/11/20/two-articles-about-insider-trading/
It will be interesting to see the reaction to the investigation news Monday.
Also, The volume was weak and their was little momentum.
I will go long again, probably in December
Hey flight, good to see here again. I hold similar sentiment. I just posted similar arguments about Dow and it's Fibs on LCC.
I bought TZA yesterday and today. Did you see VIX Dec $37 calls? Wow!!! What's up with that???
I did not see. Can you indicate what you saw please. thxs
this elliott wave blogger has been incredibly accurate for past month. he thinks market goes higher to 1250 and than retreats to 1135 which he sees as major buy in point for next bull market move UP
Hey thanks, for the encouragement. Glad to know I am not the only one. Seems most think it will go up next week. VIX, hmmm, headline sensitivitey? China might raise rates this weekend?
Anyone else: Please comment on the chart here or on my blog. I really want to know what others are thinking... or what you see...