So after watching this stock climb consistently up for a few months, I decided to buy in in (this was back in October). Literally the next day, the huge down run started, and ever since it has reached bottom (around November 2nd) it's been going sideways/down. Before this whole fiasco happened, many people (on multiple websites) were quoting this stock would be in "double digits" by January. I am painfully aware that is not going to be a case (at least not with the current performance), but I am hoping things will get better soon.
Even though this stock has not been doing it's best recently, I bought it for the long term (3-5 years) so I am not majorly annoyed by this down run, because I am expecting it to go back up above the high October prices and beyond. Am I wrong in making this assumption? What is (in your opinion) the long term outlook for this company and the stock value? (is >$10 in the next 6 months reasonable or am I being overly optimistic?)
I feel your pain, but somewhere in the near future they will see this stock is selling at a P/E of slightly more than 1.4 and a P/S of 4.3, per the financial data on the front page of the finance.yahoo.com site for XTEX.
I was able to listen to the RBC conference by going in the backdoor!
Found a link from one of the other MLPs that presented, then was able to change the address from one session to another. There are a lot of sessions (1-4, 6-13). Not sure why session 5 didn't have anything recorded. I listened to all of them but the LNG and coal presentations so much of it is muddled, but I don't recall XTEX mentioning anything new. Haynesville shale will be a savior for them and the Barnett, even though rig count is falling rapidly, is holding pretty steady due to many wells being drilled but not completed and also due to the fact that drilling is now matched well with the decline profile. In other words, the Barnett may have flat production for 5-10 years before we see any overall field decline. Obviously very difficult to forcast any further out than 1 yr but the inventory of undrilled locations in the Barnett is enourmous and it is now a manufacturing play with little geological risk.
You're making a bet that XTEX will survive their near-death experience of this Spring, by continuing to sell off assets, reduce debt, and--most important--re-finance the rest of the debt to extend the due dates. Their remaining operations are mostly in two good areas, the Barnett and Haynesville Shale plays, but they have other assets that are not profitable.
Management has a big stake and has been making real progress in selling off assets and reducing debt, so you should be OK if you can wait until 2010. Their success to date has earned them a $6.50 fair value estimate from Morningstar (http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s.aspx?t=xtex). With any luck, they'll also resume their distributions in 2010.
BTW, you don't own stock, you own partnership units. Check out the Alerian website or learn the definition of MLP's if this is news to you.