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Crosstex Energy, Komandit ┼×irket Message Board

  • ross.john51 ross.john51 Jan 20, 2010 2:49 AM Flag

    Morningstar, Seeking Alpha and Zack's

    All have given thumbs up to XTEX. Someone once said to put the stock in a drawer and get it out in a year. Woohoo...just 18 months ago this stock was at close to $40. Just a little more time, some good refi and continued 6 percent of the domestic market and we might just hit those numbers again, unless investors in 2008 were on a toot and bought anything offered on the NASDAQ, which I doubt, but seeing how the herd has been behaving these past couple of weeks anything is possible.

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    • If you are from Texas, you may have read in the San Antonio, Dallas (bunch of communists) or the Houston newspapers, where the townspeople around the Barnett drilling sites are raising nine kinds of hell about the "noise" from the drilling operations, and the "smell" from wells that have come in. I understand that capturing some of the "smell" can be resold and the structure to capture it in costs nothing. Insofar as the noise from drilling is concerned...everyone from Oklahoma, Texas and Louisiana will tell you that drilling is a 24X7 operation. I am sure the railroad commission will tell them to go and pound sand with a mallet.

    • On the buyout front, XTEX's LA assets are right in the mainstream of E & P development. Very desirable. The Barnett is a bit of old news and needing better gas pricing, but it's still a shale and gas prices are going to recover such that exploration in the Barnett is going to improve. Beyond that, we still have years of gas coming out of the Barnett that needs to be transported and processed. The Barnett is still not fully developed.

    • Well, my basic feeling is that it is short-term overbought. Without a dividend, it's not really worth my money. NG prices are seasonal, and this cold snap won't last forever. However, I agree with you that it looks pretty good in the long term.

      I'm not ashamed of being greedy, though!

    • P.S. Holly Energy which is making a play in the Barnett field may come sniffing at the door for a takeover.

      They are a strong company and can afford a $15 buyout, if our next 3Q show a good profit, refi and debt reduction, plus a dividend return.

      Of course, in the case of a buyout...play hard to get...the price always goes up another couple of points hoping another player gets involved.

    • What would you see as a good price per share should the company decide to sell? I got screwed with HTE which had a book value of $16.50 and they sold the company to the Koreans for $9.50US per share.

    • Smore,
      My basis is under $5 and I think a number of posters here are better than that. I think book value is around $15 here (could be wrong) so I hope for them to put things in order for a couple of years, maybe build book a bit, then get a little premium to book on a sale. We could be looking at $20/share then. That would be a nice return on investment. There's so much impatience in the world today. Everyone wants it right now. But, if it takes 5 years to move from my basis of $5 to $20, would that not be considered a pretty good return? In the old days, you wouldn't even have to ask such a question.

    • Yeah, what they call "bolt-ons", or small lengths of pipelines that open up new customers downstream or producers upstream.

      But they'll have to have a good return to balance out their interest rates.

      XTEX is up for grabs as an acquisition, but the chance of that happening has been significantly reduced by the recent upturn in their price.

      I'm an old, fat cat (not in the rich sense) who likes his prey to get close before I pounce, and this thing is too pricey to be an easy money-maker at this point.

      Bought some BAC at under $15 with my money, but I'm still watching to see if this one will go under $8 in the spring.

      At that point, assuming that the refi hasn't been aborted, it would be time to back up the truck. Dividends determine the value of this stock.

    • My understanding is that XTEX is planning to expand their systems in the Barnett and, especially, in the Haynesville. I think that one of the best investments they could make is if they can get firm contracts in place that will allow them to restart their shut-in fractionator in Louisiana. Fractionator capacity is very tight now, so I am hopeful they can get the commitments they need. NGLS recently signed a deal with OKS for a $100 MM expansion of their fractionator, which is reported to be very accretive to both partnerships. Restarting a shut-in facility should be even more accretive.

      Jim

    • s-sibley@sbcglobal.net s-sibley Jan 20, 2010 11:21 AM Flag

      18 months ago the company was growing like a weed, acquiring and building pipelines faster than a speeding bullet. Now, they have sold a lot of the core assets they had, and lost more in the hurricane. Times have changed. I urge you to be wary of the know-nothing touts on this board who seem to know where the stock will be in a year.

      • 2 Replies to s-sibley
      • All true. But what does the next 5 years bring? NG is poised to be the centerpoint of our energy policy. NG pipelines are and will be at extreme capacity and the cost of new pipelines will be extaordinary. As the Great One once said , I look to where the puck will be , not where it is. Book em Daniel.

      • Good advice. But didn't XTEX recently say something about wanting to add more assets (i.e. pipelines, fractunators, etc.) increasing their asset base worth?

        BTW, if XTEX hits $25, which is possible since I downloaded a list of all pipeline MLPs last night from the dividend investor and found that many of them had P/Es in the teens and twenties and many only were paying a dollar and change in divs, so if it can happen to them, maybe it can happen for us.