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Crosstex Energy, L.P. Message Board

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  • lner2512 lner2512 Feb 7, 2010 2:51 AM Flag

    Consumer sentiment/appetite for risk.

    There are a lot of other risks, as I think you know. They must match or beat larger competitors--RGNC, ETP, EPD and others--in the Haynesville; that'll require capital, maybe more than they have or can raise without dilution. They still have the problem of making their South Louisiana plants profitable, which appears to be a function of the markets, largely beyond their control. They need more well connections in the Barnett, again pretty much beyond their control. And they need to produce enough DCF reliably enough to support a distribution.

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    • Well-stated, iner. I was talking about short-term stuff (should have been investor sentiment rather than consumer sentiment, BTW). The next news item to move the stock will be the distribution. We have no idea what the normalized DCF will be, do we? It ain't been normal for quite a while!

      Anyway, it was interesting to watch the price action on Thursday and Friday.

      • 1 Reply to smorefi60
      • I think the next news item to move the stock will be earnings, either 4Q or 1Q. If 4Q or 1Q DCF is stronger than expected, that will move it up. If not, at least there will be a trend--or not--that will tell us if or when DCF will support a distribution, and how much. BOCTAOE, including market and tax law changes and the U.S. economy taking a crap.

        In the meanwhile, the only way to make money in Crosstex is by trading it. So I am out until there is at least the prospect of a catalyst, hopefully on the upside.

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