This is how they do it: (amounts in millions) 2009 2008 2007 2006 NET CASH FLOW - OPERATING ACTIVITIES $1,121 $1,080 $1,034 $1,125 NET CASH FLOW - INVESTING (493) (233) (867) (299) NET CASH $628 $847 $167 $826 Shares Outstanding 456.6 NET CASH/SHARE $1.38 Dividend $1.00 Payout Ratio 73% If you see the Net Cash/Dividend trending down toward the $1.00 the dividend will be in jeopardy.
You need to be careful with that other cash flow from investing activities number, that is not recurring capX so you would want to exclude that from the calc and then you are at 53%. So quite a bit safer than you are thinking
i know this isnt going to answer your question directly but this is how I kind of look at it... Yeah the dividend fundamentally doesnt appear safe but for as long as WIN has decalared that dividend I think there might be some security in that. Also lets say they scrap it in two years, Ill collect every one before that.