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Gilead Sciences Inc. Message Board

  • izincso izincso Jun 20, 2007 9:50 PM Flag

    I think the big mouthed Gildees

     

    just swallowed their tongues.

    This topic is deleted.
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    • "ALL PAH DRUGS HAVE BLACK BOX WARNINGS."

      "At least so far."

      You were expecting something different from Thelin?

      Have you seen the Canadian black box warning for Thelin?

      Pre-screening of recipients (wouldn't want any sick people...)
      Mandatory liver tests.
      Restrictive distribution
      Monthly Pregnancy tests for women!

    • Southtown lives!

    • I too believe that there must have been something else they were looking at with MYOG. GILD has had cardiology aspirations in the past and maybe they felt it was cheaper and smarter to buy a cardiology department than to build one. But on price, we have a difference of opinion. +50% seems to high even in retrospect.

      When two companies are separate an investor has a choice. He can buy x percent of A and y percent of B in any combination that makes him happy. When A and B combine, the investor loses his choice. This tends to be a bad thing; and therefore, I'm wary of mergers. Synergies usually do not materialize in accordance with management's rosey predictions, and assimilation is often tougher than expected. Not to mention the price thing. If I had wanted Myogen before the merger, I could have bought it for less. Now (beign long GILD), I paid 50% more for a stock I'm not even sure I wanted.

      That said, I'm very happy that this thing appears to be working (my lucky number 3 came up). Now, let's sell the drug and make more money.

    • Gileads total revenues - past 4 quarters

      2006 Q2 = $685 Million
      2006 Q3 = $748 Million
      2006 Q4 = $899 Million
      2007 Q1 = $1.03 Billion!

      I like it...

    • > I agree that they paid too much and took on too much risk
      > with Myogen. They could have bought it for less, I'm sure.

      Your analysis only works if you assume Ambri was the ONLY thing Myogen had going.

      Its not. They have a much bigger pipeline than you imagine.

    • I agree that they paid too much and took on too much risk with Myogen. They could have bought it for less, I'm sure. But, now the risk is out of the equation. Myogen was trading at around $35 9 months before approval. If GILD had never purchased it, it would be at least 52 now with the approval. Basically, matching the premium GILD paid. Assume that you win 6 bucks for a roll of the dice. 3 is your lucky number, so you pay $1.50 for a 3. You overpaid. But, when 3 comes up. It doesn't matter because you won! In fact, you are happy you overpaid. You could have had all those crappy numbers for less, but you would have lost, so screw 'em.

      As to PFEs valuation. That is speculation and hearsay. I don't buy it. The market valued MYOG at 1.7 billion before the buyout. And while the market is sometimes wrong, 800 million seems out of whack.

    • What the hell are you talking about fool!

      The whole market is down and you somehow look to that as some kind of validation of your ill-conceived opinion?

      GILD down 2.1%
      ENCY down 9.6%

 
GILD
89.84-0.70(-0.77%)Jul 25 4:00 PMEDT

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