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Gilead Sciences Inc. Message Board

  • longinsm2 longinsm2 Apr 16, 2011 9:15 AM Flag

    Q2 share price movement over the last six years ...

    GILD Q2 price movement -

    2010 - Apr 05 / Jun 30 - $46.03 / $34.28
    2009 - Apr 01 / Jun 30 - $48.10 / $46.84
    2008 - Apr 01 / Jun 30 - $51.86 / $52.95
    2007 - Apr 02 / Jun 29 - $38.46 / $38.80
    2006 - Apr 03 / Jun 30 - $31.38 / $29.58
    2005 - Apr 01 / Jun 30 - $17.98 / $22.00

    For shareholders looking for a more productive Q2 - companies which gain a listing in the Russell 3000 almost invariably experience significant share price appreciation in Q2 driven by automatic share purchase by funds which track the Index. Insmed (INSM) would appear likely to be included this year, and there was significant accumulation concurrent with inclusion in 2009.


    Minimum market cap for the Russell 3000 -

    2010 --- $112,000,000
    2009 --- $078,000,000
    2008 --- $167,000,000
    2007 --- $262,000,000
    2006 --- $218,000,000
    2005 --- $183,000,000


    Market cap appreciation concurrent with Insmed's 2009 inclusion (high of day) -

    June 19 - $324,277,460
    June 12 - $272,544,480
    June 05 - $240,999,980

    May 29 - $223,335,060
    May 22 - $211,979,040
    May 15 - $172,863,860
    May 08 - $189,267,000
    May 01 - $189,267,000

    Apr 24 - $161,507,840
    Apr 17 - $151,413,600
    Apr 09 - $119,869,100
    Apr 03 - $117,345,540


    Market cap appreciation in recent weeks (end of day) -

    Apr 15 - $217,247,820
    Apr 08 - $190,681,520
    Apr 01 - $180,750,190
    Mar 25 - $153,687,310
    Mar 18 - $116,444,830


    Worth noting that Insmed's market cap on April 3 2009 would have qualified the Company for eventual RI inclusion even had it dropped 33% from there. But nevertheless the market cap had almost doubled from there by the end of May, when the data is captured which determines the new membership - and had almost trebled from there by June 19, a week before the funds which track the Russell 3000 were due to buy their shares.

    Many shareholders at the time assumed that the sustained accumulation was in anticipation of favorable Phase II data from the label expansion study of iPlex as a therapy for MMD. But if that was the justification for the increase in the market cap in 2009, what would that tell us about a reasonable market cap for the Company today, when it is already sitting on Arikace Phase II data which evidences efficacy in an inhaled antibiotic never before seen at Phase II or Phase III?


    Q2 2009 -

    1. FDA approved (2005) iPlex for Severe short stature - commercialization prohibited in the U.S., development prohibited in Europe.

    2. Phase II - iPlex label expansion for MMD - data expected mid-year (disappointed).

    3. Approximately $123 million in cash etc.

    4. Anticipated cash burn - unknown, pending the outcome of a strategic review.

    Now -

    1. FDA approved (2005) iPlex for Severe short stature - commercialization prohibited in the U.S., development allowed in Europe.

    2. Phase II / III - PremIplex for Complications of Prematurity - scheduled completion this December (Premacure study).

    3. Phase III due to commence in June - Arikace for CF pulmonary infection.

    4. Phase III due to commence in August - Arikace for NTM infection.

    5. Clinical, regulatory, laboratory and administrations facility.

    6. Approximately $100 million in cash etc.

    7. Anticipated cash burn - primarily the following clinical trial expense (including the external and internal costs associated with each study) -

    $15 - 20 million - CF / US
    $20 - 25 million - CF / EU
    $10 - 12 million - NTM
    $15 - 20 million - Long term safety


    Ten reasons to be a shareholder -

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=9585&tid=583014&mid=583014&tof=3&frt=2

    Is a higher market cap warranted? -

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=9585&tid=583026&mid=583026&tof=6&frt=2

    Will the new VC shareholders have an impact? -

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=9585&tid=580160&mid=580160&tof=-1&rt=2&frt=2&off=1

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