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Gilead Sciences Inc. Message Board

  • epb2840 epb2840 Apr 4, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    UBS today ...

    "Sovaldi scripts for the week ending March 28 were released this morning with total scripts of 7,434, up 4% from last week. New Rx were 3,878, up 4% w/w. This is the last full-week data in 1Q, and there will be one more day's scripts left this month.

    A total of 58,865 scripts and 37,636 new scripts have been recorded in 1Q through March 28. These numbers show that 1Q revenues would beat current 1Q Sovaldi consensus (Bloomberg) of $705m.

    The math implies that conservatively, we are tracking to $2.5b already:
    - Assume 95% complete therapy (97.5% refill in months 2 and 3 each)
    - Assume 12% gross-to-net pricing (more conservative than Gilead comments imply)
    - Apply the 0.88 correction factor suggested by 4Q scripts vs. reported demand
    - Assume 10% of NRx are actually refills "

    Q1 Sovaldi rev of 2.5B v. consensus of 700M ... A 2 BILLION BEAT, FOR GOODNESS SAKES ... do the math - 37,600 x say, $70,000 per throw (and we're not including the UK, Germany, France, Austria, Sweden etc.)

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