"Sovaldi scripts for the week ending March 28 were released this morning with total scripts of 7,434, up 4% from last week. New Rx were 3,878, up 4% w/w. This is the last full-week data in 1Q, and there will be one more day's scripts left this month.
A total of 58,865 scripts and 37,636 new scripts have been recorded in 1Q through March 28. These numbers show that 1Q revenues would beat current 1Q Sovaldi consensus (Bloomberg) of $705m.
The math implies that conservatively, we are tracking to $2.5b already:
- Assume 95% complete therapy (97.5% refill in months 2 and 3 each)
- Assume 12% gross-to-net pricing (more conservative than Gilead comments imply)
- Apply the 0.88 correction factor suggested by 4Q scripts vs. reported demand
- Assume 10% of NRx are actually refills "
Q1 Sovaldi rev of 2.5B v. consensus of 700M ... A 2 BILLION BEAT, FOR GOODNESS SAKES ... do the math - 37,600 x say, $70,000 per throw (and we're not including the UK, Germany, France, Austria, Sweden etc.)
they will have to care at some point. we are still only awaiting the first full qtr of sales for this drug. when they report, that's where things count. we don't know what is the actual price they are being paid for the drug. forget the $84K number. it won't be that.