After a week of thought about the boyout I think I will vote no with my few thousand shares. I know that my vote won't matter but I tend to agree with bbeckord.
We paid $19 dollars a share for nxtr now. But when one year from now the price of Gilead stock has doubled to 100 the amount paid for the company will really be 38 dollars a share. I think we should have waited for all the good news to come out and then buy this company.
The 2 NDA's, HBV study well under way and very positive PMPA data by the fall. I believe the stock will be 70 or more this fall. We most likely could pick this company up for $20 share in the fall too. Then we could still use their European sales force and not dilute the stock.
I would even prefer to set up our own sales force in Europe and then buy the company.
I will be watching the information that comes out from the upcoming conference relating to NXTR products. The only way I feel this is a good deal for GILD is if the NXTR pipeline has potential sales of over $1 billion a year. I don't see that right now but I may change my mind after the upcoming conference. If the NXTR shareholders get 1/3 of the total shares they should produce 1/3 of the future revenues. I believe Gilead will have over $2 billion in sales within 4 years.
Anyone who has been reading my stuff for the last year knows that. But when someone starts shooting insults at specific individuals it requires a respond. If you look at my initial posts after the merger I believe I said welcome and explained our company for the new posters. Then Gene felt the need to start a war. I believe respect for others is the route we should take. I will no longer post any negative coments towards anyone. I am sorry. I lost my mind for a while there.
1. My vote will be "NO". May your shares, my 10,000 share, plus some other will kill this buyout. To get no-good sales force in Europe for $500M? Gee!
2. No to your sale projections (for 2002). * Proveon -- sale ~$200M (may be by 2002 and 50M shares)or $4 per share in sale. If we assume a profit margin of 60% then earnings will be $2.4 per share (not bad!!)Remember that 3TC after 4 yrs and being a "gold standard" has sale of $850M; * Flu pills -- sale ~$250M, 20% profit, then - $1 per share; * Hep B -- Assuming PH III is over by 2001 and approval by 2002, then by 2002 we got the potential but no money yet!;
* PMPA the same as Hep B (if we are very lucky).
Summary -- Gild does not need NXTR By 2002: * Total sale - $400M to $500M * Earning per share - $3 to $4.5 * With NXTR we get very marginal sale force & product line. Too many problems for too much money!!!
You guys are obviously much smarter than GILD management! Either stand behind managemnents decision or SELL if it pains you so much about their NXTR decision.Just wait a while until they make it more clear to you why they wanted them. (Take a chill pill) Is the NXTR decision the only thing they've done you disagree with?
Or is it that genebrn has gotten under your skin? I believe that is precisely the case. I've read his posts on the NXTR bb and his insight and humor is much preferred to your negative whining and inability to communicate/articulate your postion as effectively. He's got your numbers and you can't beat him, so join him.
My prediction. GILD to be purchased within 2 years. Good luck to all.