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Gilead Sciences Inc. Message Board

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  • pharmainvestor11 pharmainvestor11 Mar 7, 1999 3:26 PM Flag

    Final thoughts on a buyout.

    1. My vote will be "NO". May your shares, my
    10,000 share, plus some other will kill this buyout. To
    get no-good sales force in Europe for $500M?
    Gee!

    2. No to your sale projections (for 2002).
    *
    Proveon -- sale ~$200M (may be by 2002 and 50M shares)or
    $4 per share in sale. If we assume a profit margin
    of 60% then earnings will be $2.4 per share (not
    bad!!)Remember that 3TC after 4 yrs and being a "gold standard"
    has sale of $850M;
    * Flu pills -- sale ~$250M,
    20% profit, then - $1 per share;
    * Hep B --
    Assuming PH III is over by 2001 and approval by 2002, then
    by 2002 we got the potential but no money yet!;

    * PMPA the same as Hep B (if we are very
    lucky).

    Summary -- Gild does not need NXTR
    By
    2002:
    * Total sale - $400M to $500M
    * Earning per
    share - $3 to $4.5
    * With NXTR we get very marginal
    sale force & product line. Too many problems for too
    much money!!!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • You guys are obviously much smarter than GILD
      management! Either stand behind managemnents decision or SELL
      if it pains you so much about their NXTR
      decision.Just wait a while until they make it more clear to you
      why they wanted them. (Take a chill pill) Is the NXTR
      decision the only thing they've done you disagree
      with?

      Or is it that genebrn has gotten under your skin? I
      believe that is precisely the case. I've read his posts
      on the NXTR bb and his insight and humor is much
      preferred to your negative whining and inability to
      communicate/articulate your postion as effectively. He's got your
      numbers and you can't beat him, so join him.

      My
      prediction. GILD to be purchased within 2 years. Good luck to
      all.

      • 2 Replies to prepare2win
      • Being invested in GILD, I believe that I am their
        owner (a small one). Therefore, GILD management works
        for me.

        PS. This merger can go through ONLY
        with shareholders' approval. Therefore, my vote
        counts. I know it is new for you!

      • shares outstanding fully diluted will be the
        number of shares. So, if you think GILD is going to $70
        by the fall think again. The NXTR deal just makes
        that next (excuse the pun) to impossible. At $70, that
        puts GILD at roughly $3.5 BB market cap. WOW! Very
        expensive. You must refigure your earnings against 52 MM
        shares

        Remember, when doing all your earnings
        calculations you must no longer do the earnings off of 35 MM
        shares out fully diluted, but 52 MM (with the $80 MM
        NXTR convert included).

        This dilution will
        significantly change the earnings power of the company and
        change the EPS. 52 MM outstanding is alot of shares, why
        didn't GILD just raise $200 MM through a convertible
        debt or preferred instrument. Much less dilution and
        management could have built a sales force that way?

 
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