1. My vote will be "NO". May your shares, my 10,000 share, plus some other will kill this buyout. To get no-good sales force in Europe for $500M? Gee!
2. No to your sale projections (for 2002). * Proveon -- sale ~$200M (may be by 2002 and 50M shares)or $4 per share in sale. If we assume a profit margin of 60% then earnings will be $2.4 per share (not bad!!)Remember that 3TC after 4 yrs and being a "gold standard" has sale of $850M; * Flu pills -- sale ~$250M, 20% profit, then - $1 per share; * Hep B -- Assuming PH III is over by 2001 and approval by 2002, then by 2002 we got the potential but no money yet!;
* PMPA the same as Hep B (if we are very lucky).
Summary -- Gild does not need NXTR By 2002: * Total sale - $400M to $500M * Earning per share - $3 to $4.5 * With NXTR we get very marginal sale force & product line. Too many problems for too much money!!!
You guys are obviously much smarter than GILD management! Either stand behind managemnents decision or SELL if it pains you so much about their NXTR decision.Just wait a while until they make it more clear to you why they wanted them. (Take a chill pill) Is the NXTR decision the only thing they've done you disagree with?
Or is it that genebrn has gotten under your skin? I believe that is precisely the case. I've read his posts on the NXTR bb and his insight and humor is much preferred to your negative whining and inability to communicate/articulate your postion as effectively. He's got your numbers and you can't beat him, so join him.
My prediction. GILD to be purchased within 2 years. Good luck to all.
shares outstanding fully diluted will be the number of shares. So, if you think GILD is going to $70 by the fall think again. The NXTR deal just makes that next (excuse the pun) to impossible. At $70, that puts GILD at roughly $3.5 BB market cap. WOW! Very expensive. You must refigure your earnings against 52 MM shares
Remember, when doing all your earnings calculations you must no longer do the earnings off of 35 MM shares out fully diluted, but 52 MM (with the $80 MM NXTR convert included).
This dilution will significantly change the earnings power of the company and change the EPS. 52 MM outstanding is alot of shares, why didn't GILD just raise $200 MM through a convertible debt or preferred instrument. Much less dilution and management could have built a sales force that way?