For months I kept an eye on October 5, the end of warning season and the start of earnings season. I was genuinely surprised by the lack of warnings, compared to previous quarters. Earnings are coming in, and many are better than expected, albeit estimates have been greatly reduced. Even companies that miss estimates are getting credit for getting expenses under control (example: PWAV, one of the positions I sold Thurdsay afternoon, ouch!). I have a feeling that tech has adjusted to the new environment and that things are going to improve from here. I am so convinced, I am commiting money from my street account to positions I expect to hold for a year or more. Historically, the market turns 3-6 months before the economy bottoms.
Prior to Sept 11, I was expecting that we would see signs of a recovery in the 4th quarter of this year. This horrific event changed the game a bit. It possibly pushed the recovery into the 1st or 2nd half of 02. I noticed the lack of warnings also and it appears that things aren't getting worse. Looking ahead is the uncertainty of how these biochemical threats and attacks affect the consumer and guidance for Q4. There is albeit, a slight chance of another attack somewhere. This could keep a lid on things until either the lunatics are killed or captured. One would assume that another attack in the US could affect the holiday season severely.I have no doubt that we will have a recovery and a monster rally if the threat is taken out quickly. Bin-Laden needs to be captured,killed or cripple the terrorist regimes throughout the middle east within the next 60 days. If things continue as they are at present, I think we have a good shot at revisting the lows as it becomes evident that this war is going to drag out for longer than we hoped.