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Cymer Inc. Message Board

  • dcxavier dcxavier Dec 11, 2001 8:47 AM Flag

    Yesterday's WSJ

    There was a front page article in Monday's WSJ, discussing the amount of cash and other liquid assets currently available. It stated that cash assets have increased by $700B since the beginning of 2000. With the very low interest rates, there is much incentive to put it to use. The big question is whether it would be used to pay down debt, spent, invested, or continued to be saved. The article also stated that the amount of cash exceeds 20% of the market cap of the NYSE. The last two times that happened, 1982 and 1991, there were long bull runs that followed.

    Also, check out the performance of the chip equips since September 21. These numbers are eye-popping. I thought I was doing well in KLAC and LRCX lately.

    http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=16765682

    I haven't been able to get to the internet much lately. My home internet connection, Adelphia Powerlink, has been down a lot, and they are distracted trying to get ex-AtHome subscribers back online in other parts of the country.

    Good luck to all!

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    • Suckers rally or get rich quick investors? The 100 & 1k share buy and sells have been largely visable. Big blocks on a large scale have stayed put. Check this guy out. He supports the big drop theory.

      http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/longwaves/2001/msg02202.html

    • I generally agree with you that this is a sucker's rally.

      People are enthusiastic about CYMI, however, given its virtual monopoly and the fact that is maintains leading edge technology, global support, and proven manufacturing capability.

      In my mind, the big unknown for predicting the future performance of CYMI is how many lasers are Nikon, ASML, and Canon holding in their factories now? If it is a big inventory, which was the case coming out of the last downturn, then CYMI won't lead the upturn as many folks predict. Which, in my mind, makes this a double-sucker's stock in the short term.

    • hmmm... totally off subject but, DC, I thought Adelphia was bought out by Comcast, which happens to be my cable company. No problems here... It actually got a lot faster since AT&T got cut off... But alas I'm moving into my new home within the next week and the new area doesn't have Cable modems... :-(... fun while it lasted... hehe... God only knows what's going to happen in the stock market. Time to be weary and investing... oxymoron but still the truth...

      ~Matthew

      • 1 Reply to beercur
      • You haven't been here in a long time, sounds like things are going well if you are moving to a new home. Hope you got back in the market after you cashed out after a small gain. I recall being skeptical about your investment in AMD, as it turns out, AMD has been booming the last few weeks!

        Is this a sucker's rally? Who cares, it's time to make money. Think there's legs until mid-January, then I'll reevaluate in light of the upcoming earnings.

        Also, this is from today's briefing.com. They could add CYMI to the list of beneficiaries.

        1:32PM Prudential on Semi Equipment : Prudential positive on semi equipment group; channel checks indicate that TSM is upgrading its Fab 4 to 0.18/0.15/0.13 micron (currently 0.25 micron), and that orders of $350-$500 mln could be seen in Dec/Jan. Also, the construction freeze at Fab 14 has been lifted, which could indicate a nascent trend of upward revisions in TSM's 2002 capex plans. Firm sees primary beneficiaries as AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, LRCX, RTEC.

    • saying regarding the list. My point is no one knows what "anything" is worth becuase of the bubble. If you look at the major components of the SOX, which in effect drive the stocks on that list,they are the ones that are selling at 10 times sales. Look at XLNX, or MU, or AMAT for example. The lists performance will be dictated by the leadership in the group. The SOX tanks they will fall.

      Believe me when I say I'm not trying to pick a fight and I'm not a perma bear but Wall Street is picking the pockets of main street again and will pull the plug when they are through with us.

      These stocks at this particular time are priced to perfection given the macro econmic backdrop and geo political risks which no one seems to notice because stocks are going up. Everyone is seeing "V" when it's a pipedream. This is mania price action. Doubles, triples, 200 %. What company "deserves" it's valuation now given the revenues and guidance and don't tell me to look ahead because I have. No one has said anything but flat and we hope visibility improves late next year. What if it doesn't ?

      Wall Street has been hyping that since Jan 2000 and it still hasn't happened yet the SOX is 200 % above its 1998 low with worse fundamentals.

      All I'm trying to do is say , job well done to those in at the lows and just be carefull. I want the little guy to win here and all I see is a set up to take us to the cleaners again in the next few weeks.

      I wish all well, and hope everyone prospers. Look beyond the box here. We are coming down from a mania peak that will go down in history as the biggest bubble of all time and it will destroy shorts and longs before its through. Always try to remember taht and you will come out of this ok and ride the next bull to the heavens.

    • the wizard of Oz ?

      By the way, check out your companies news tonight. To justify the PE ratios that poster is spamming, the backend earnings increases of 2002 will have to be more explosive than the bubble of 2000 top which was fueled by the y2k buildout.

      There undoubtedly will be a recovery but those of you on this board seem to be banking on back to back massive bubbles here. Modest growth maybe but right now the Semis are being repriced for mania number two.

      I have no position in this stock and could care less where it goes but it is amazing to see the faith people still have in Wall Street.

      Good luck to all on your positions.

      • 1 Reply to newerror2002
      • The PE's are the current First Call estimates. Hope you aren't confusing the Price-to-Earnings/Growth ratio (PEG) also posted there. Mr. Wennerstrom also tracks the First Call earning estimates over time in tables you will find there. There is also a current interesting discussion on the thread related to fiscal years and their effect on published "this year" and "next year" estimates.

        SNO, I think a lot of the easy money has been made. It is well documented there that PE's in chip equips have been lowest at market tops and highest at bottoms. Issue is whether the market has turned. I think it has, CYMI guidance indicates a flattening, want to pick the leaders for next cycle now.

 

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