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Cymer Inc. Message Board

  • cymeradd cymeradd Mar 6, 2002 4:38 PM Flag

    REPOST: Reason CYMI is moving

    I do not know why my previous post was erased, but here it is again:

    CYMI's predicted 2003 earnings moved up from .09 to 1.08, or a 12-fold increase LAST WEEK! Why is it so hard to believe that the stock is "worth" more now?

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    • WOW, I looked it up. Look at the difference between 60 days ago vs 30 days ago vs 7 days ago.

      So serious upgrades were made to earnings estimates.

      • 2 Replies to Show_Me_The_Money1999
      • Here are some miscellaneous ramblings.

        For SMTM1999... One possible explanation for the rapid change in earnings estimates is the year to year rollover. There is a time when "next year's" estimates become "this year's", and a new "next year" is introduced. Although I haven't tracked CYMI estimates closely, we must make sure the comparisons are apples-to-apples. This effect is particularly noticeable in highly cyclical industries that quickly shift from profit to loss and back. There was a long discussion about this on the Wennerstrom Semi Equipment thread on SI a while back.

        For jug and Rocky... I greatly admire investors who have a well defined exit strategy. It isn't profit until you sell!

        Also, I forgot to congratulate highstickr with HHLF. Wow, I hope you invested big. Maybe time to take a vacation like jug98 suggests.

        That's it, good luck to all!

      • i'm not a technical analyst and don't pretend to be one.i have been invested in cymer since they pulled out of the anaysts conference and have added to my postion over time. so yes i am a permabull.fundamently, the company is sound and doing fine. also getting ready to make a bunch of money when the time comes.the long timers who know this stock can speak for it's dominance and the fact that i holds the enabling technology to make chips smaller.most of the trash talk comes for folks who say overbought, pump n dump, etc. i know pump n dump and this one isn;t even close. i think what is happening is that more people are getting to know about cymer and what to have some. some advice to those who have heard about cymer and because it's now on they radar, have visited this board. buy 100 shares and forget that you have them for a couple of years. technically, were up from about 16 in september and the PE lokks miserable. one thing i've learned about pe's and the semi equips is that you should buy then when theire pe is high and sell when it gets low and estimates beging to go off the charts. what's the income projection for cymer when the chips industry gets buzzing again. $4? nobody's projecting that now but it will come. that's when i'll trim my postions.i only trade gains on long term holdings to avoid the tax consequences.if we go back down to 37 i will consider buying more. technically, cymer went from high teens to mid 20's built a base. it had a hard time breaking out but did and built a base in the mid 20's.then it jostled between 25 and thirty but thirty became hard to peretrate. then came morgan stanley and a lot of people suddenly heard of cymer and i would venture more than a few looked into it and liked what they found.thus far the rise has been meteroric and if i was just using cymer as a trading vehicle i'd be much quicker to trade in and out. i know one thing, i sure wouldn't be short here.for those who are looking to short my suggestion is to buy puts and eat the time premium as an insurance policy to limit you risk. yeah, cymer will probably correct but the guys that shorted and 38 gotta be sweatin' about now.more advice, if it gets there cover. you may hang on for a small profit if you can time it but this isn;t goning to be in the 20's unless something happens to roil the entire maket badly. a lot of stocks went up a lot of points in the last week or so, but most of then are coming off of bottoms while cymer in leading the way and trading at 52 week highs.the trend is up and you shouldn;t fight the may probably buy cymer cheaper than todays closing price if that is you penchant, but i think if you buy it in here and hold on for a while you you'll be very happy you got it in the 40's


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