The block is somewhere is 2nd half.
This puts in print what I've said. For years and years!
With ASML's purchase of Cymer, the roadmap is very, very clear.
The leading edge will be concentrated in very, very few.
EUV/ArF Age will be all Cymer all the time!!!
The dots on LTPS AMOLED becoming very, very easy to connect (Get it? I crack myself up!), also!!!
As part of Intel's ongoing strategy to remain an early adopter of next generation technology, the company will ramp its capital spending budget from $11 billion in 2012 to $13 billion this year.
The 20% jump is significant for names like Applied Materials, which has been an Intel Preferred Quality Supplier for each of the past two years.
The move from 28 nanometer ("nm") to 20 nm has disappointed those hoping for bigger power savings and speed gains. As a result, some foundries are downplaying 20 nm in favor of 14 nm, which offers battery power savings of 40-60% from current 28 nm designs.
The race to 14 is driving the jump in Intel's capex.
Intel hopes to have 14 nm chips shipping to clients in 2014. This schedule would keep it ahead - barely- of competitors Taiwan Semi (TSM), United Micro (UMC), Global Foundries, Samsung (SSNLF.PK) and I B M (IBM).
Historically, semiconductor capex followed a predictable path. According to Moore's Law, every two years the number of integrated circuits on a chip doubles. As a result, capital spending has followed a similar 2 year cycle. Investments build out capacity, which becomes absorbed over the following 2 years, prompting re-investment in the next generation.
This 2 year cycle appears to be quickening in regard to the shift to 14 nm. In a nod to the "me-too" nature of the industry, Intel's move into 14 nm is ushering similar investment across the board.
In December, Samsung announced it had successfully taped out 14 nm designs, thanks to collaboration with Cadence Design (CDNS), Mentor Graphics (MENT) and Synopsis (SNPS). The successful tape-out suggests Samsung's clients will be working on 14 nm designs over the coming two years. It also suggests Samsung, which has some of the deepest pockets in the business, will be boosting its capital spending this year and next.
Samsung's foundry business doubled last year, making the company the #3 global foundry operator. A lot of its strength has come thanks to its Apple (AAPL) relationship, which could be at risk as Taiwan Semi actively courts Apple. In a bid to protect its Apple-share, Samsung has announced a $4 billion upgrade to its Austin Texas foundry in order to take it from 32 nm to 28 nm. A move to 14 nm finFETs could further boost Samsung's global share of Arm Holdings (ARMH) designed chips.
The investments are likely welcomed by customers like Qualcomm (QCOM) who are eager to enjoy the benefits of 14 nm designs. The move from 40 nm to 28 nm reduced power consumption by 40% while increasing speed by 35%. However, the move from 28 nm to 20 nm only reduced power 20% while boosting speed 15%. Many think the comparatively meager gains in the shift to 20 nm is behind the faster adoption of 14 nm, which offers more attractive gains.
But, the push to 14 comes at a price, with designs becoming increasingly complex and requiring significantly more debugging and testing. This requires a much deeper collaboration between foundries, customers and testing companies including Teradyne (TER).
This need for collaboration prompted both Intel and Taiwan Semi to invest in A S M L Holdings (ASML). The investments give the foundries access to the latest extreme ultraviolet lithography ("EUV") technology. ASML announced this past summer it's acquiring Cymer, Inc. (CYMI) in part to capture Cymer's EUV technology.