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Cymer Inc. Message Board

  • It looks like the NAZ will test 2,500...
    <agggh> I'm just getting so frustrated with this market.
    I tempted to take my 30% loss for the year and just
    walk away. The only thing that's stopping me, is that
    this only a blip. Recession is marked by layoffs and
    that has not happened yet. The Fed with a prime rate
    of 6.5% is not to blame. Growing up I remember rates
    of almost 20%. This 6.5% is nothing, but at least
    when I was 10 I didn't have money invested in the
    market and simply relied on Mom to feed and cloth me. I
    have to keep remembering this is just a slow down and
    not the end of the world.

    We should see a
    market up swing next week to a more rational area. This
    computer selling problem is a buying time for these type
    of stocks. Everybody knows not to buy a new Intel
    processor computer when the prices are high, improved
    performance is not there yet, and a better and cheaper
    processors will be available in three months. Cell phones
    and G3 will be the next big push and we will start to
    see this portion of the industry recover early next
    year. The thing that worries me, though, is that the
    allocation for certain semi product has not eased. It is
    impossible to build new devices without first getting the
    necessary product. This will cause a general slow down in
    the industry until manufacturers realize that the 50%
    profit device is not selling without the 10% profit
    product on allocation and they prioritize and start to
    manufacturer in a grater quantity of this 10% profit device.
    Maybe the sensible thing to do is take my money out of
    the market, if I can't take the down time... I remain
    long, in CY, and trying to be strong.

    ~Matthew

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    • CSCO is on a fiscal year. If they are to warn, it
      will be in January. That's when the quarter ends for
      them. They should report in early Feb.
      They did
      guide estimates a little higher for the year in their
      last cc.

      Bush meet with big Al today. Let's see
      if Al gives us a early Christmas present.

    • It seems like Cisco is to warn, also; they
      already announced a tripling of the bad debt accounting
      provision. Seems to be getting bleaker and bleaker. The Semi
      business will recover and these prices will seem like a
      bad joke, but one question remains,.... when will it
      happen.

      ~Matthew

    • TERN warned today. Predicted 4Q loss of 46-49 cents vs. First Call estimate of a six cent profit. Yikes!

    • All:

      The message cited (#30457) is in fact
      a malicous link. On some systems, it will destroy
      your browser session such that you cannot click on
      links, as well as other, unknown so far, damages. You
      will have to restart.

      This is a malicious link,
      and should be brought to the attention of
      Yahoo.

      Please report as abuse, using Harassment or similar as
      the category, citing your feelings about having your
      computer messed with when you are on Yahoo. I am sure this
      will put a stop to this nonsense.

      Oh, and to
      the people putting up the posts. Come on, give me
      your phone #, address, etc. I am sure the FBI would
      LOVE to hear from you...and I would love to come visit
      you. At least give me your server IP, so I can contact
      the owner and have him sued....

    • This is the second time in as many weeks my name
      has been associated with spam. Needless to say don't
      click the link in the message below. It will redirect
      you to a site which has nothing to do with the
      subject.

      Market seems that it can't make up its mind today.
      Should be an interesting next couple of weeks. Keep your
      safety belts on.

      ~Matthew

    • The 1974 recession was preceded by a bear market
      that started in early 1973. The bear market continued
      until late 1974, which was close to the end of the
      recession.

      Your link to the article about Fed activity was very
      pertinent. It confirms the proposition that although lower
      rates boost the economy in the long run, the market
      reacts to the economy itself. The market won't turn up
      until the economy is ready to turn up.

    • early 80's 80-81 and 90-91. Every ten years.
      Interesting.

    • I'm not positive, but I would think the early 70's, like 73-74 comes to mind.

    • "Recession is marked by layoffs and that has not
      happened yet". I disagree. Chase & JP Morgan will layoff
      about 5,000 workers with their merger. The auto's are
      starting to cut back on production. We are starting to see
      the main ingredient for a slowdown, LAYOFF's. Two
      thirds of the economy is consumer spending. You
      want
      to curb demand, start throwing people out
      of
      work. The Fed is acheiving their goal, bust
      the
      speculation bubble in the market and slow
      demand. As
      painful as it is, they had to do it.

      Looking
      forward, the ingredients for the next bull move are
      starting to materialize. The Fed is starting to move
      towards easing. The excess speculation is being wrung
      out. Cash is building on the sidelines. These are the
      building blocks for the 'wall of worry' that the bull
      market has to climb. The problem is TIME. How long must
      an investor endure the pain
      before we start
      moving up. It could be 3 months, 6 or twelve.


      That's the million dollar question.

      Good Luck.

      • 1 Reply to Uvalde_Slim
      • beercur is right. Employment is a lagging
        economic indicator (as opposed to the stock market, which
        is a leading indicator). When you see increased
        unemployment, it means the slowdown/recession has been underway
        for a while.

        To me, the Chase/Morgan layoffs
        are "creative destruction", and don't think it
        represents reduced banking business. Autos are another
        story, but what proportion represents a slowdown, and
        what represents the fact that U.S. makers are losing
        market share because they are not cost
        effective?

        Your million dollar question is right. It took many
        rate hikes to turn the market from a climb to a dive.
        How many rate cuts will it take to turn the market
        again? And how long?

        No answers here.