It looks like the NAZ will test 2,500...
<agggh> I'm just getting so frustrated with this market.
I tempted to take my 30% loss for the year and just
walk away. The only thing that's stopping me, is that
this only a blip. Recession is marked by layoffs and
that has not happened yet. The Fed with a prime rate
of 6.5% is not to blame. Growing up I remember rates
of almost 20%. This 6.5% is nothing, but at least
when I was 10 I didn't have money invested in the
market and simply relied on Mom to feed and cloth me. I
have to keep remembering this is just a slow down and
not the end of the world.
We should see a
market up swing next week to a more rational area. This
computer selling problem is a buying time for these type
of stocks. Everybody knows not to buy a new Intel
processor computer when the prices are high, improved
performance is not there yet, and a better and cheaper
processors will be available in three months. Cell phones
and G3 will be the next big push and we will start to
see this portion of the industry recover early next
year. The thing that worries me, though, is that the
allocation for certain semi product has not eased. It is
impossible to build new devices without first getting the
necessary product. This will cause a general slow down in
the industry until manufacturers realize that the 50%
profit device is not selling without the 10% profit
product on allocation and they prioritize and start to
manufacturer in a grater quantity of this 10% profit device.
Maybe the sensible thing to do is take my money out of
the market, if I can't take the down time... I remain
long, in CY, and trying to be strong.
CSCO is on a fiscal year. If they are to warn, it
will be in January. That's when the quarter ends for
them. They should report in early Feb.
guide estimates a little higher for the year in their
Bush meet with big Al today. Let's see
if Al gives us a early Christmas present.
It seems like Cisco is to warn, also; they
already announced a tripling of the bad debt accounting
provision. Seems to be getting bleaker and bleaker. The Semi
business will recover and these prices will seem like a
bad joke, but one question remains,.... when will it
The message cited (#30457) is in fact
a malicous link. On some systems, it will destroy
your browser session such that you cannot click on
links, as well as other, unknown so far, damages. You
will have to restart.
This is a malicious link,
and should be brought to the attention of
Please report as abuse, using Harassment or similar as
the category, citing your feelings about having your
computer messed with when you are on Yahoo. I am sure this
will put a stop to this nonsense.
Oh, and to
the people putting up the posts. Come on, give me
your phone #, address, etc. I am sure the FBI would
LOVE to hear from you...and I would love to come visit
you. At least give me your server IP, so I can contact
the owner and have him sued....
This is the second time in as many weeks my name
has been associated with spam. Needless to say don't
click the link in the message below. It will redirect
you to a site which has nothing to do with the
Market seems that it can't make up its mind today.
Should be an interesting next couple of weeks. Keep your
safety belts on.
The 1974 recession was preceded by a bear market
that started in early 1973. The bear market continued
until late 1974, which was close to the end of the
Your link to the article about Fed activity was very
pertinent. It confirms the proposition that although lower
rates boost the economy in the long run, the market
reacts to the economy itself. The market won't turn up
until the economy is ready to turn up.
"Recession is marked by layoffs and that has not
happened yet". I disagree. Chase & JP Morgan will layoff
about 5,000 workers with their merger. The auto's are
starting to cut back on production. We are starting to see
the main ingredient for a slowdown, LAYOFF's. Two
thirds of the economy is consumer spending. You
to curb demand, start throwing people out
work. The Fed is acheiving their goal, bust
speculation bubble in the market and slow
painful as it is, they had to do it.
forward, the ingredients for the next bull move are
starting to materialize. The Fed is starting to move
towards easing. The excess speculation is being wrung
out. Cash is building on the sidelines. These are the
building blocks for the 'wall of worry' that the bull
market has to climb. The problem is TIME. How long must
an investor endure the pain
before we start
moving up. It could be 3 months, 6 or twelve.
That's the million dollar question.
beercur is right. Employment is a lagging
economic indicator (as opposed to the stock market, which
is a leading indicator). When you see increased
unemployment, it means the slowdown/recession has been underway
for a while.
To me, the Chase/Morgan layoffs
are "creative destruction", and don't think it
represents reduced banking business. Autos are another
story, but what proportion represents a slowdown, and
what represents the fact that U.S. makers are losing
market share because they are not cost
Your million dollar question is right. It took many
rate hikes to turn the market from a climb to a dive.
How many rate cuts will it take to turn the market
again? And how long?
No answers here.