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Cymer Inc. Message Board

  • Gariver911 Gariver911 Mar 12, 2001 12:56 PM Flag

    NAZ Recovery! How long?

    Hi there!

    I tried to post a link, but it was not allowed. Anyway, go to Getatip (add the c-o-m) and click on "Historical Nasdaq Observations." That place does not look like much, but the page is right on target. I mean, you can't change history, right? So the info helps! It's highly pertinent!

    To sum up: The NAZ will recover to 5132 in about 19.8 months. That's using the info related to the worst market slump in my lifetime: The 1973-1974 Stock Market Collapse!

    Now, to be conservative and play it safe, I believe the recovery will take 2plus years. By then you will see the following...
    Cymer in the 60s.
    Cisco in the 80s.
    Dell in the 60s.
    Etc., etc.

    Reasons for this? Well, in the mid 70s, the US did not have the huge tech advances that we now have. With all that tech progress, productivity has gone up tremendously. And, of course, the US benefits by being the world leader in digital technology. As Church Lady says: "Isn't that special!" Let me repeat that for emphasis: It is special, and it is very important. So the recovery is just a matter of time.

    The bottom line...
    Stocks that you buy now will do well in a couple of years. Not bad!

    Good luck to all!

    Gariver911...What me worry? Life's a beach!

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    • 19.8 months to recover all the losses on the NAZ? Wishful thinking.

      I'm sure the guys who invested in the Nikkei when it was at 40,000 in 1989 will differ with your assessment.

    • Hey 911.

      We need some positive news today.

      I agree for the most part. It' could take 2-3 years IMO.I 've been reviewing the long term charts. This is mainly due to all support levels for most tech stocks have been broken on the short and intermediate charts.

      I noticed one thing, The Naz and most tech stocks are at their long term support levels.
      The long term stochastics indicator on the Naz is about 13. It's not at rock bottom, but it's
      the lowest in 3 years. Most tech stocks that I follow are at 7 or lower. This is why I believe
      we are near a bottom.

      I agree that most of the good companies will recover about 50 % of their losses in about 2-3 years. It will depend largely on the economy and if it can maintain a 3-3.5 growth rate.

      It's very painful, but if your in, you have to survive the perfect storm.

      This is once in a lifetime chance to buy stocks
      this cheap. A lot of money is going to be made in the next 5-7 years.

      Good Luck.