Everyone on this board seems to be saying this is a great buy (of which I am one)but then many of these same folks believe the price will not improve until 2015. So we should just sit here and draw our 4.4%, because EVEP does not seem interested in increasing the dividend that's for sure. Most of the other MLP's pay 6-9% or some even higher. Why shouldn't we buy another MLP until 2015 and then come back to EVEP for our great price increase. On a $100,000 investment that 5% difference compounded is a nice chunk of change.
So deep down in our hearts, do we really think (or hope) EVEP is going to $90-95 in the next 6 months?
1 year..or more.. is fine with me. I'm in no rush. In the meantime, there are several other scenarios to make investing interesting. I plan to already be here "for our great price increase." I wish all of us the best of luck!
I think we try to make a distribution decision every quarter, and of course with the Utica that’s caused some changes in terms of how we’ve been looking at things. Our objective is to grow the distribution a minimum of 5% per year. That’s a stated goal. We’re going to fall short of that this year, but I suspect that we will significantly exceed that next year and in the years to come
According to the conference call,they are planning on raising the divy in 2012 to 5% and more thereafter. In the presentation yesterday they are already receiving several preliminary monetization offers for some of their acreage from some of the big oil companies with plans to monetize some in Q2-Q3 2012. That will surely raise the PPS as well as the divy.
When the NG export facilities comes online EVEP will at least triple what it is going for now. The first export facility in Corpus Christi, Texas will come online in 2015. NG is selling for around 6 times overseas as it is here in the U.S.
Yes, the monitization event will occur next summer. That's not 2015. That alone gets animal spirits in play in looking forward to 2015. The 5% distribution increase number is irrelevant. It's an old goal. When, a swap occurs for some of the Utica, those assets swapped for are producing income right now. Revenue and DCF will dramatically increase as will the distribution. The question is "what will the distribution be for the 4th quarter 2012, a quarter when swapped assets contribute in the whole quarter? Having said that, another question, then, will be just how much the company retains of new cash flow to contribute to new drilling in the Utica?
So, we should see a very nice bump in the distribution in latter 2012 going into 2013, then an inexorable, year on year, increase as new drilling and the override keeps increasing. Look at the ramp up in the other shale plays, it gets going rather quickly if the assets are really producing. The assets do have to produce.
The wildcard, still, is oil. How much can they get out of the oil window/well? This will be coming online as global oil demand recovers.
is far too low for the risk here....just sold some March $60 puts for $4.60.....that comes to over$13 per year on an annualized basis and my risk is only $60 not the $68 at which it is currently trading....$13 per year times 4 years (till 2015) is $52 ...... this is a sucker play at anything over $70...if you buy the stock, then sell the calls ......! markets will be doing a serious correction in a week or two when the super-committee fails to come up with enough budget cuts......$60 is a fair price at which to begin to build a position.....low $50's even better!
I'm not sure it will double, but I do believe it will be over a 100. I also believe a 2 for 1 split should be happening right now or at least before the 1st of the year and they should increase the dividend. That would bring in a ton of small investors.
chance at$78 or better..this puppy is going to$55/$57 area before the end of the year.......yield is far too low to justify prices in the mid-%70's.......I think $55 os a good buy price....right now you can get about $3.90 to sell the $55 puts for March!