reits: I loved your post which I thought might be a clue to better understanding of evep's price (and a way to make money). So I tried your idea with another MLP that I own -- kmp -- and here are the results:
Jan 29... Feb 4... Mar 5... Apr 1... May 6... Jun 2... Jul 1... Aug 12... Sep 1... Oct 1... Nov 16... Dec 20...
And for 2011 lows:::
Jan 5... Feb 11... Mar 15... Apr 12... May 17... Jun 17... Jul 29... Aug 5... Sep 12... Oct 4... Nov 1... Dec 1... (so far)
In 2010, the low is clearly near the start of each month for the first 10 months -- probably because kmp increased in price so much over the year. Here's another way to look at the kmp data:::
1/1/10 thru 10/31/10
* stock up 13% * lows near start of the month
11/1/10 thru 7/29/11
* stock up 1% * lows near option expiration date
8/1/11 thru 12/16/11
* stock up 11% * lows near start of month
So for kmp, if you knew a priori whether the stock was going to be up or flat in a particular time period, you could estimate when the low in a month would be. (Of course, you will never know a priori how the stock will act over a specified time period.)
Maybe other posters could pick their favorite mlp and do the same study. My work took only 15 minutes or so. If we had the data on a dozen mlps, maybe something would jump out. Just a suggestion to active board members.
The 18th is right in the middle of the average date of the month for option expiration. If the first Friday is on the 1st then expiration is on the 15th. If the first Friday is on the 7th then expiration is on the 21st. So the 18th is the right in the middle and could very well explain your findings.
As I said B4, we haven't seen 63 since once last month, then briefly after EX in Aug and B4 that consistently in July. So if we have lost 6 months and for some strange reason and are now back in July OK; but, has that been the history of EVEP?
It was interesting that options expiration last year was the low. I just did a lot of modeling Doc to figure out the trade. I here all of what you say. I almost would rather play the total bull here and sell puts because of the volatility in the premiums. I absolutly think we are moving north. So, I am definitely focused on it, but the option trade did my head in.