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EV Energy Partners LP Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Dec 15, 2011 6:01 PM Flag

    18th of month last two years

    Interesting phenomena occurs better than 50% of time for the past two years. That is the low point for the PPS on those months happens on the mean time of the 18th of the month.

    I left out the week B4 and after the EX date for those months because of the normal gyrations in PPS on the run ups and run downs around the EX.

    Here is what I found:

    The lows of the months for 2010

    Jan 13......
    Mar 22......
    Apr 19.....
    May 21....
    Aug. 24...
    Sept 17....
    Oct 15...
    Nov 16...
    Dec 17...

    The lows of the months for 2011

    Jan 20...
    Apr 12...
    May 17...
    Jun 20..
    Aug 22...
    Nov 21..
    Dec ?(19 my guess)

    Interesting phenomena...anyone have a reason why?

    Btw..Makes it easier to trade around. Hopefully 63 will be our low this month and 70+ our high next month...

    Good luck longs!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Feb contract will be there on Monday as Dec has now expired.

    • reits: I loved your post which I thought might be a clue to better understanding of evep's price (and a way to make money). So I tried your idea with another MLP that I own -- kmp -- and here are the results:

      2010 lows:::

      Jan 29...
      Feb 4...
      Mar 5...
      Apr 1...
      May 6...
      Jun 2...
      Jul 1...
      Aug 12...
      Sep 1...
      Oct 1...
      Nov 16...
      Dec 20...


      And for 2011 lows:::

      Jan 5...
      Feb 11...
      Mar 15...
      Apr 12...
      May 17...
      Jun 17...
      Jul 29...
      Aug 5...
      Sep 12...
      Oct 4...
      Nov 1...
      Dec 1... (so far)

      In 2010, the low is clearly near the start of each month for the first 10 months -- probably because kmp increased in price so much over the year. Here's another way to look at the kmp data:::

      1/1/10 thru 10/31/10

      * stock up 13%
      * lows near start of the month

      11/1/10 thru 7/29/11

      * stock up 1%
      * lows near option expiration date

      8/1/11 thru 12/16/11

      * stock up 11%
      * lows near start of month

      So for kmp, if you knew a priori whether the stock was going to be up or flat in a particular time period, you could estimate when the low in a month would be. (Of course, you will never know a priori how the stock will act over a specified time period.)

      Maybe other posters could pick their favorite mlp and do the same study. My work took only 15 minutes or so. If we had the data on a dozen mlps, maybe something would jump out. Just a suggestion to active board members.

    • The 18th is right in the middle of the average date of the month for option expiration. If the first Friday is on the 1st then expiration is on the 15th. If the first Friday is on the 7th then expiration is on the 21st. So the 18th is the right in the middle and could very well explain your findings.

    • As I said B4, we haven't seen 63 since once last month, then briefly after EX in Aug and B4 that consistently in July. So if we have lost 6 months and for some strange reason and are now back in July OK; but, has that been the history of EVEP?

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=EVEP&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

 
EVEP
38.00-0.19(-0.50%)9:40 AMEDT

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