According to my numbers, mid 30s will do it if If IF the volatile oil window can be sold down the road (2015...) for 7kish per. Any deal short term will bring in 200-250 and will need to be accompanied by an equity raise of a similar amount to raise production and reduce leverage - all to get the dist. coverage back over 1 and potentially a dist. increase to 3.25 in '14. A lot still has to go right, not to mention NGL prices stabilizing (propane has been taking a dump)
Well, if you look back through posts, you will see that I as well as someone else was predicting $38 as a target price for quite a while already, since the price was considerably higher. Based on current distribution levels and the typical yield for an E&P MLP, fair price is somewhere around $35-$38. In other words, around here. This is where the price should have been all along. The whole rise to $70 last year was a speculative bubble and it has returned to fair value based on current production and cash flow.
Liza has put a band aid on this wounded stock. Whether it holds under water is debatable, because that is where most of us are now. Maybe a boatful of land sales will float by some day and save us all. Ha! Ha!