It is amazing that some analyst's report can cause so much damage in one day. He was probably short the stock and getting tired of the upward momentum. So, he gives so loose explanation on how there is a price divergence in the world market, and presto the stock goes down 6%. Wow, that was easy. However, this guy fails to mention that the domestic industry is very protected and that there is significant tariffs on Chinese hot rolled steel. Further, he does not mention that raw material imput costs for the steel mills have gone down significantly, such as iron order, which is trading under 100.00/ton for the first time, in a very long time. Also, zinc, which is used in galvanized steel (automotive) is trading at .83/lb. This should bold well for their bottom line. He also fails to mention that because of the uncertainty in the market, most steel buyers are not buying import steel because of the long lead-times. Imports of flat rolled was down significantly in June. Automotive is fairly strong, and construction activity has picked up. People state opinions every day regarding their opinion on the market. However, this one guy from Dahlman Rose must be God. Yea right.
He does follow the steel stocks very close and he's a respected analyst. I have heard rumors that most steel stocks are flat lining the next few months at least. But could be much worse if China starts dumping steel for nothing in the US.
China can not dump steel in the US, because the US domestic industry is protected. There are duties on Chinese hot rolled as high as 80-90%. The duties are significantly less on coated steel (galvanized). However, China is really not a threat to steel mills in the midwest portion, and southern portion of the US, where most of the steel mills are located. Also, if China started dumping steel, which is not logical, then immediately there would be dumping suits.