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AK Steel Holding Corporation Message Board

  • manofsteel65 manofsteel65 Feb 2, 2000 5:03 PM Flag

    who knows

    It seems to me that alot of people on here seem
    to think they know alot about what is happening in
    Mansfield. So my question to all of you is this. When is the
    lock out going to end, and who will be the big winner,
    if anyone?

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    • you are a highly sophisticated investor with keen
      insights that goes far beyond the capabilities of CSFB,
      MSDW etc. So if some of our opinions differ from your
      viewpoint, please have tolerance for us. We really are not
      idiots. We were simply not endowed with your enormous
      financial talents.

      PS, what does Rumx stand for?

    • Ha! Ha! Do you really think this dog well
      make
      30 bucks.You'll be lucky to see 11 bucks by year end
      you idiot.Without the institutions
      buying in this
      stock will be dirt cheaper than
      you think. You talk
      about buyout value well
      why don't you look at the
      companys book value
      it's way up there too but the stock
      keeps droping. That shows you there's just no interest
      in the steel sector any more.Steel is
      just a
      dieing industry in this country becouse
      are goverment
      doesn't give a shit. Think about
      that when you send in
      your tax payment.

      RUMX,

    • you stated (Tell me, how eager do you think AKS
      is to come back to the table?? Let's see: More tons
      per hour, more flexible work rules,)

      If AKS is
      such a good company why would they give the scabs
      better flexible work rules than they would their owne
      union workers.(IDIOT)

    • modern technology makes steel by a
      computer-controlled recipe but it takes skill to operate an overhead
      crane and a ladle spill is rather awkward. I think that
      management should settle with the union rather than spend a
      year trying to train a whole new batch of workers at
      the MANSFIELD PLANT. Continuous casting, vacuum
      degassing, automated rolling mills, and other technological
      advances also require highly skilled and trained workers.
      The attitude that workers are dumb lugs that do not
      care about the quality of their work isw
      self-defeating and genrally untrue. The price of the stock is
      now so low that I am going to buy some more for the
      eventual rise in price that is sure to occur. Most of the
      loss is due to extraordinary costs that will be gone
      next year as prices rise.

    • We buy 300 series stainless from Armco/AKS.
      Prices are up about 25% from the lows reached in Q3 of
      99. AKS makes mostly 409 stainless for automotive and
      I really don't follow these and electrical steel
      prices. I know they are up but don't know how much. They
      are a growing factor in the 300 series markets and
      this is a growth potential for them. Selling at 2.6X
      last year's cash flow before special items, this stock
      is dirt cheap. I think the buyout value is north of
      $30 and expect that to happen by the end of 2000.

    • incredible insights into the Steel industry. I
      disagree with your opinion.

      First, the American
      Steel industry is very sick as evidenced by pretax
      profits in 1999:

      Millions of Dollars: ( ) Means
      Loss

      AKS.........$261
      X...........
      $76
      LTV.........$(170)
      BS..........$(179)
      NS..........$($45)

      The only reason X made a profit is that they are
      substantially overprovided on pensions and took a bunch of the
      excess as profit. In my opinion, if LTV and BS continue
      to generate losses over the next 2 years at the rate
      incurred in 1999 actual, they'll be insolvent and will be
      forced to file for BK. In the fourth quarter alone, LTV
      lost $70 million and have leveraged their balance
      sheet up the yingyang with the acquisition of
      Copperweld which under a best case scenario will be mildly
      accretive.

      And of course if LTV and BS go under,
      there will be many other integrated producers who will
      be forced to pack it in. The only way the Steel
      industry can return to normal RONAs is to increase prices
      substantially. Today's selling levels are probably equivalent to
      levels actually experienced in the mid 1990s while
      inflation has gone up 20% over this time. Productivity
      improvements have offset the inflation.

      So, something
      has to give. Either, the American steel industry
      folds or they return to normal RONAs. My bet is on the
      latter. Detroit needs the integrated steels as badly as
      the integrated steels need Detroit.

      Lastly,
      look at the market valuation of each company's
      stock:

      Billions of
      Dollars:

      X........$2.2
      AKS......$1.0
      BS.......$.9
      LTV......$.4
      NS.......$.3

      AKS is valued at less than 50% of X but generates 3.5
      times the profit. And what's really ludicrous is that
      AKS and BS valuations are roughly the same even
      though AKS generates
      $430 more pretax profit dollars.
      BS is desperate. They just cut their manpower by 500
      people. That's worth $25 million annually so they only
      need another $475 million to get to a marginal RONA
      acceptability level.

    • on this "gold mine" of yours, I suggest you look
      at ATI, a 100% stainless supplier and see what
      higher stainless prices have done for their stock. It
      has dropped by around 50% and the big reason is
      because they have not been able to pass on the increased
      cost of nickel prices to their customers. My last
      reply to you, the steel business for the most part is
      dead money. We've been in an up-cycle for about 3
      years now and unfortunately it hasn't helped. Now the
      market thinks steel is headed toward down cycle and they
      are probably right. A strong US dollar will not help
      domestics ship overseas.

    • If you read my posts more carefully, you would
      know I was an AS stockholder. I had only vaguely heard
      of AK prior to the morning of May 21, 1999. If AKS
      hit 30, I sure wasn't around. I held 1000 shares of
      AS since 1991. Between Oct. 98 and March, 1999, I
      bought additional shares so I had over 25,000 on the day
      of the merger. Avg. cost was 5.6985/share. It was
      dead money from late May on. Late on the morning of
      Nov. 15 I spoke w/ Alan McCoy. I didn't like what I
      heard and sold my first shares (10%) at 18 before the
      phone call ended.(Post #562) I then bought Jan 17 1/2
      AKSAW calls on 11/26 and tripled my calls on 12/2
      because I hoped and felt the labor matters would be
      resolved quickly based on the planned mediation, news
      reports from the Middletown Journal and a local radio
      station and posts of Union members and you on this Board.
      (I believe it was you who posted the link to the
      Journal which I would not otherwise have found, and if it
      was, I do thank you for that.) Avg. cost was
      .5826/contract. Sold most of my remaining shares on 11/15, 12/30,
      1/6 , and 1/7 at 18 to 20. I tried to hold shares at
      least 1 year & 1 day. I chased a buyer to take the
      calls at 2 1/4 when the stock hit 20 1/8 on 1/7. Too
      bad for me that I had to sell them at such a discount
      to their value at the time -worse for the buyer
      although it probably seemed like a real bargain at the
      time. And by the way, if you didn't know that AK closed
      or went above 18 intra day several times in November
      and December and went to over 20 on 1/6 and 1/7, you
      should pay more attention or change your source of
      information.

      With respect to your more recent post, you figure out
      whether Dec. & Jan. were both great months. I traded
      RFMD, ETEK, AHAA & DISH. Oracle, a long time holding,
      was on a tear in December and Qwest did well also. I
      sold AKS and bought more ALLP with about 50 % of the
      proceeds, bringing total to almost 24K shares by 1/14/00.
      Avg. cost, $6.5377/shr. Hit 13 3/4 intra day at end of
      January. Closed yesterday at 11 3/4. Take a look at their
      web site at http://www.allp.com and do your own DD.
      And if you really want to be upset, don't buy it but
      look at its price again in 30 days and 1 year and
      think of how much profit I've made while your AKS stock
      is likely to become less and less dead money. Or you
      would have a great opportunity to send me a smartass
      message if it tanks like AKS or worse. Maybe that stock
      is my reward or punishment for speaking my mind on
      this stock, since I would have had far fewer shares of
      ALLP if Dick hadn't ruined AKS and driven me
      away.

      Back to the real issues. As I have previously said, I
      think the workers at Mansfield were great. I expected a
      double by the end of '99 because of the work of
      Mansfield and other employees which AS management bragged
      about in the '98 Annual Report. The employees, like the
      stockholders, felt the pain of the modernization of facilites
      for the better part of the last decade. Its too bad
      Barbed Wire Dick came along and messed up a good thing
      just as things were beginning to click. For me, it
      just ruined a great investment. For others it ruined
      dreams, jobs, careers, retirements and probably lives.
      Barbed Wire Dick should be ashamed, and so should
      stockholders who support him. He F___ed the Company, its
      shareholders and employees. Yea, AKS may regain its glory
      someday, but why would an investor take the chance while
      this management remains and the lockout continues.
      There are too many good investments. I, like most
      investors, will forego the privilege of buying any more of
      this stock for awhile. And that is the real issue.
      Questioning my integrity on a collateral issue will not
      change the facts or my opinions.

      Oh, by the way,
      thanks for teaching me what not to put on this board in
      the future. Hopefully I have learned a lesson about
      how to avoid feeling obligated to respond to such
      nonsense. I can't recall you responding to my requests for
      factual info

    • person issued an open challenge to the board
      (message 1087, if my memory is correct) I made a good
      faith effort to answer. I was rewarded with insults,
      threats, and general denigration simply because I accepted
      the challenge from "unionno1" to find the 7 errors in
      his post. "unionno1" took umbrage because I found
      over 20 errors. I even warned him of this fact prior
      to listing them, and he vainly stated that I was
      "dreaming".

      Now you ask a question to "anyone". I can
      provide a legitimate answer to this question,


      BUT

      If I do, and you do not like the answer, will I once
      again be insulted, threatened, and belittled?

      Or
      are you really only soliciting confirmation of YOUR
      views, without regard to whether they are correct, or
      even open to discussion?

      Once again, I mean no
      offense. I am simply trying to get to the heart of the
      matter. Are you sincerely looking for information or
      opinions about the wisdom (or lack thereof) of investing
      in AKS?

      Or do you really just want someone
      to parrot a view that all stockholders should
      pressure AK to capitulate to union demands?

      I would
      be pleased to comment on the former, but refuse to
      be bullied into the latter. I would espouse the
      latter stance, boldly and vociferously, if and when any
      calm, RATIONAL case is presented convincing me that it
      would be in the best interests of the
      stockholders.

      Continuous ranting, raving, veiled threats and the like will
      not win over rational investors.

      I will not
      suffer your vituperative postings simply because you do
      not like my HONEST answer to a question that YOU
      asked.

    • detail what are the financial fundamentals that will give this company high operating profits now? anyone?

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AKS
4.49+0.08(+1.81%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT