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Ohr Pharmaceutical, Inc. Message Board

  • hugeman99 hugeman99 Aug 15, 2013 6:08 PM Flag

    Ophthotech (Fovista, anti-PDGF) is going public. Just filed for IPO

    Ophthotech, with their anti-PDGF Wet AMD therapy that showed statistically signifiant improvements when administered incombination with Lucentis in PhIIb Trial is going public.

    Still an intravitreal injection (I just watched a few videos on injections on Youtube, not fun).

    Per the Opthamology Management article mentioned by Stuart, I wonder if their private equity partners who recently invested $175 million realize that intravitreal injections as we know them are going by the wayside in a few years and they want to cash out a portion of their initial investment ahead of potential competition.

    Looks like they are only offering a small slice of the company ($85MM). S1 Prospectus just fileds on EDGAR

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • IMO investors are quickly going to lose interest in OHRP now.

    • Nice find, Hugeman, you are really getting into this.
      My quick first impressions:
      The docs behind Ophthotech (Guyer and Patel) are financially very sharp. They had Macugen and were able to do a successful IPO (Eyetech Corp) plus a fairly quick sale of Eyetech to OSI even though Lucentis was right on their heels all the time. OSI soon came to regret purchasing Eyetech.

      The Fovista combination as currently constituted would require two intravitreal injections -- but probably only twice a year or so. Ophthotech might be working on some delivery system that is more patient friendly than a double injection.

      The IPO should be a big winner. Everyone will be thinking it's REGN all over again. And who wouldn't want to be in on a second REGN.

      Timing is right for these guys. The competition is fierce so get out there early with the IPO. Allegro might be their biggest competition in the combination realm. Allergan's DARPins research was farmed out to Molecular Partners and face delays

      My best guess is that, depending on how the IPO is priced, it will skyrocket on the first day of trading.

      There will be big demand for this one, I believe.

      A huge jump in Ophthotech might ac tually help the Ohr share price (bring focus on the sector)

      • 2 Replies to stuartcreekfarms
      • Also interesting that Ophthotech chose the 'go public' route. The day Ophthotech announced the PhII results, REGN stock initially cratered about $25, but recovered when people figured out that Fovista would likely work just as well with Eylea, probably better.

        Anyway, can you imagine what kind of offers Genentech, Regeneron, Allergan and other made to buy Ophthotech? Ophthotech leadership must have some high confidence!

      • Stuart, I think you are right about the IPO, probably close to a double on first day. The S1 is preliminary so no price or share quantities yet. However if we make a couple of assumptions we can get an idea of what the company is valued at. They are estimating the IPO value at $85 million. Fully diluted share count (incuding warrants, optioins and conversion of preferred will be approximately 150 million shares. Conservatively, if they price it at $15, that works out to about 5.7 million shares or a little under 4% of the company. That gives us a total company value of about $2.1 billion. Maybe somebody can double check my calcs.

        If any of you guys watch IPOs, you know that 5.6 million shares is a tiny offering. It's a trick used by underwriters that creates instant share demand for two reasons, 1) Mutual Funds will only get a sliver of the allocation they want, so will need to buy much more in the open market. 2) Traders know their is virtually no float and no sellers. They can push the stock higher price with little effort. Unless you are a preferred client at one of the four underwriters, you and I aren't getting any IPO shares.

        Can we presume OHRP would be valued similarly if the PhII trial showed significant efficacy? KATY BAR THE DOOR!

        Sentiment: Buy

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