Livermore, the shots go for $1500 each plus doctor service fees. so if they do 6 per year, that's $12k per annum. I cant imagine ohrp would price the superior product at only $1k. I think it might be $300-400 per month, or roughly $4000-6000 per year. Even at $4k, 2 million patients in the developed world could afford the drug. That's $8 billion in revenues. In the developing world, lets say another $1-2 billion.
So I can make a case for $10 billion in global revenues in a decade. since profit margins are so high, that might be $4 billion in profits after tax. So a 15 p/e on that profit is $60 billion. There are now 30 mm shares fully diluted. Lets say in 7-10 years the share count is 50 million. And $60 billion divided by 50 million is $1200 per share. That's even bigger than your price target I think.
Now, if 3 million aged and diabetic people that have blindness can afford a few hundred dollars per month for vision and a better quality of life, we have a good chance at a blockbuster product. In fact, I chatted with a leading biotech newsletter writer who thinks $10 billion is a good estimate for a very efficacious drug. So my numbers may have a shot, and the stock target of $600 dollars might be a bit low....
Strong buy? Ya think. Comments, observations. complaints requested.
Like Livermore says, perform your own due diligence.
The stock has advanced 10 fold in 3 years due to a tiny group of investors with a tiny amount of capital compared to the overall market. Only these investors who have an interest have participated in the 'price discovery mechanism' of OHRP. Since price is the weighted average of interest x capital summed over all the set of possible investors, we are waiting for more investors to come this way with the interest and capital. This takes time.
Only 30% of AMD/CRVO/BRVO/DME are treated with Lucentis or Eylea. The major pharm for these is Avastin. Put all out of the picture with a drop, both nationally and internationally..... All patients will demand an Rx or will switch providerers...............The upside is not the $ of the drop but the sheer numbers.
yes, your figures are possible and should make all the longs at this stage extremely rich in a few years. And that's not the only reason to be excited. The other reason is that the aminosterols act so specifically on their targets that these drugs (squalamine and trodusquemine) are a breakthrough in medicine. A fourth of the adults over 30 in this country our obese and could benefit from trodusquemine!!.