If you are long WPRT and believe that they will have success in the Nat Gas Transportation boom then you want more shorts. In 2-5 years either the longs or shorts will be right. I am a firm believer that the story and success of WPRT is not only in tact but growing faster than most realize. If I am right then when the shorts are proven wrong the squeeze will be long lived and large.
The reality is that the R&D money spent on medium duty has proven to be a very profitable business for WPRT. They spent a ton of R&D money to get the LNG engines going and they are just starting. If you look at the adoption rate of medium duty and apply it to the LNG long Haul then you will realize that with the current launch 5 months ago that then the first $s will start to come in this quarter and accelerate over the next 6 quarters. Add in rail which has already been proven to work and this will kick in just as the long haul takes hold as medium duty has. In other words the acceleration to profitability (although slow for shortsighted individuals) will continue to grow at an exponential rate over the next 8-12 quarters. As the trend becomes more obvious so will the analysts analysis. The reality is that this happening and WPRT no longer reports revenue from the OEM's. In other words as the R&D expenses lean up due to the new product launches; well documented on many sources and new revenue starts to come from those launches the math is obvious. I know the shorts will jump all over this with backward statements and that is fine, I want them to short as much as they can handle.
FYI insiders have made no buys or sells in many quarters and will likely not as the rules they have to follow will provide very few days to buy or sell. There is way too much material information being released and to be released for them to be leagally allowed to do anything. All I know is that the industry leaders are working with or for WPRT. Good luck shorts you need it. SHORT MORE!
Drew, tks for your posts. Interesting and Illustrative. Keep'em comping. I am a firm beleiver that NG will play a major (if not significant) role in the Class 8 Truck Segment. However, every day that passess I am less convinced that LNG will, in fact, be the predominant fuel choice even for long-haul heavy duty tractors. Technology, price, fuel availability, and other factors, are making CNG more and more appealing even to long-haul tractors. If this, indeed is how it plays out, what impact will it have in WPRT future prospects?
gonna have to agree with drew here. Westport's HPDI provides more power & better efficiency. Volvo claims their engine will deliver 30% better fuel efficiency. The CWI 8.9L uses more fuel than the Cummins diesel does, 5.8mpg compared to 6.5 for the diesel . I admit I haven't seen the specs on the others.
LNG is about 30% higher cost than CNG so that better efficiency means the fuel cost difference would be minimal. Added to that you have more torque, faster fueling & a more complete fill (when compared to fast-fill CNG), longer range and usually (depending on the tanks used) less weight.
LNG will play a role. The fact is that refueling with LNG is faster than even diesel and longer distances are possible. Keep in mind that if you wanted an LNG tractor today and you placed an order you would get it in 9-12 months. The revenue would be realized in the future. The orders are coming in and the fact is that so is the infrastructure. Price is fine for LNG, as is availability, CNG is not a real solution for the Class 8. Again the numbers that matter in this segment will start to show each and every quarter but are still going to be very small. This takes years to play out and a single quarter is a very weak way to measure. As for current R&D spend the reality is WPRT is doing a great deal of ground breaking stuff and as for competition name one production unit that WPRT competes against. (Today there are zero) The only one that is coming online in 2014 is the Cummins one and that has yet to be proven. (Torque etc.) Even if the Cummins one is good the WPRT technology is in Cummins, Paccar, Volvo, Weichei, etc and WPRT is still the strongest company in the market. The OEM model is brilliant and not a single nay sayer has provided one FACT that disproves this.