Honda, back in April you commented that gasoline prices would have very little bearing on the price of this stock. Perhaps you'd like to amend that to "in the long term...".
Agreed that this will be making the start of a solid run upward by the end of 2007 or early 2008, as GCFB expands it's market region under their business development plan.
A couple factors that could really benefit or hinder the restaurant industry are fuel and energy prices cutting into profits, and weak consumer confidence in the economy (for the obvious reasons- job worries, cash flow, etc).
I still see this stock growing more along the lines of Applebee's (APPB), which started out as a regional chain too. Anyone else have a comparable restaurant in mind?
We'd all love to see $50/share in the next couple years, but a more realistic price would be $17-25 by end of 2008.
For now, it's buy-in with what you're comfortable, and sit back and wait...
<<Honda, back in April you commented that gasoline prices would have very little bearing on the price of this stock. Perhaps you'd like to amend that to "in the long term...".>>
If given the opportunity, then sure! Fear of gas prices seem to be a worry of the entire retail sector as they believe the consumer is tapped out. For GC, it seems to be more of a problem for overhead costs than revenue.
As far as who to compare them to, it's really hard because there isn't really anybody doing all the things they are doing. As far as the menu and decor goes, Champps is about the closest. (for obvious reasons) There are other restaurants with brew pubs but none of them seem nearly as focused on food. Certainly not BJ's or Rock Bottom. I hadn't really thought about it this way because for me, it's all about the beer, but if you figure that with fermentus interruptus, they can brew beer with ALL overhead for less than $70 per barrel, or about half of what they can buy Bud or anything else for. Those of us who've been here for a while have realized that this is a huge competetive advantage, but if the time comes when people's checkbooks get tight, it's going to be even more important.
At somepoint we'll see the growth spurt and breakout that Applebee's had, but the food quality from Applebee's isn't even in the same timezone.
Anybody else aware of any brew pub chains with a higher end menu?
There's a fear in the marketplace that due to higher energy costs, the consumer is not going to have the money to spend on things like going out to eat or other retail. Since GC's not supposed to turn earnings positive until late next year, there's no hurry to get into the stock right now.
We may see $50 per share, but it's probably 15 years away. $12-15 by the end of 2009 is a more likely scenario.