I was doing some DD on ALKS and found the following:
1. Roughly 64,000,000 in the float.
2. Between Mrch 31 and July 15 just over 64,500,000 shares changed hands.
3. Institutions and Mutual Funds on March 31st held 85.13% of the float. As you can see they most likely gave that back when the FDA gave the negative anouncement to JNJ about Risperdal Consta.
4. Between July 2 and Aug 9 over over 17,000,000 shares were traded.
What does this mean is it tells us the MM and Institutions did leave and they are on their way back?
Correction: 4 million on 1 billion, though twice as much as 2 million, is not 4% but only .4% -- compared to 20%.
Next time I invest in a mutual fund I am going to keep the actual dollar earnings in mind as a possible basis for an investment strategy.
Jmoulin thinks my posts are dopey and I think the same of his.
But maybe he is a big employer with lots of bucks, as in his example. I am not. I do not report revenues, run a business etc. And I am not a portfolio manager. (Though jmoulin apparently believes that a guy running a 10 million portfolio who earns 20% is at risk of losing his job to someone with a billion dollar portfolio who earns twice as much money = 4 million, which is only 4%)
I am merely a small time investor with a few dollars that I would like to earn more from than 3% per annum on a CD. 7% on a trade in ONE day (as per some else) looks pretty good in this environment if you can manage it. 20%+ as in ALKS over the past few days looks even better.
The fact that a 1,000 investment results in a profit of only about 200 is not a function of the investment strategy but of the small amount of capital started with.
It's still a lot better than $30 from a CD (never mind the money lost here and elsewhere this year).
But jmoulin and I agree on something else: There's no point continuing the discussion as AT LEAST one of us is too ignorant to understand what the other is talking about.
"However, the fact remains: You evaluate a return on your investment, whether held for a day, year or longer by the percentage gain, not by the dollar amount.
This is the same for CFA's as for everyone else despite your claim "If you are going to trade day in day out ... you need a big price movement, not a percentage."
What's your evidence or reasoning for that claim? "
In my last comment on this nonsense, so that the board can get back to ALKS specific comments:
Maybe in the world you live in your employer is satisfied to tell the world that its business increased by 5-10-20 percent. My employer reports revenues and earnings in dollars, and those earnings and revenues drive stock prices. Percentages, particularly if calculated on a small base, are not the standard. You did not understand that in your original example and apparently still do not.
If you believe a portfolio manager can keep his/her job by earning large percentages but small dollar amounts, enjoy yourself. You may want to trade with the guy who thinks he is going to compound daily at 7% on and on.
This is my last communication on this. Why I bothered in the first place escapes me but it is August and things are slow.
Thanks for your comments. My background is in psychiatry not the "Professional Investment World". I have found any educational information on how this process works as a great resource. Recently I have seen another stock manipulated by the "Hedge Funds and MM", some of the more talented investment professionals were sharing what are some of the tricks used to allow the MMs to get back in and it truly is amazing. I would appreciate any comments as it relates to this...only makes all of us better in the long run!!!
I will try to do my part with the help of others. The Longs are in this together!
My guess is the timing of the FDA rejection was absolutely fortuitous for the institutional investor who may not have like the Reliant deal.
The rejection blew out the retail investor and left the institutions largely intact. I am not saying they were not selling before, because I am sure they were until it got pushed off the table.
Looks like an absolutely stellar day! ALKS will be within earshot of an average volume day while the Nasdaq has just been reported to have crossed 1 billion shares.
What is the attraction of ALKS to a day trader? This stock may move in impressive percentages but usually by only a few cents a day. When you are right you'll make a quarter and when you are wrong, the market maker will kill you and you will lose a half. What is the attraction?