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Alkermes plc Message Board

  • biotechlion@rocketmail.com biotechlion Oct 11, 2010 7:19 PM Flag

    sales estimate

    Its kind of interesting that the company has not provided a possible market size for opiod dependence

    So I did some DD today after listening to the CEO's interview with Cramer.

    One months price is $ 900 ( as per cramer + CEO interview)
    total number of patients is in millions but lets say ALKS gets only 100,000

    so for yearly market one month price x 12 x total patients being treated

    900 x 12 x 100,000

    is equal to 1,080,000,000

    around 1 billion only for 100,000 patients. That is really sweet(note: total number of patients is much higher only if we will calculate all the patients in rehab)

    price target is very hard to compute can anyone help me with this.

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    • You guys have to get real here....and again, I am long here until tomorrow morning, but you are talking about numbers that are completely unrealistic. If you want to get a dose of reality, think about the number of alcoholics out there, and look at the total number of those people that are using Vivitrol in the way that it was initially approved. You are not gonna see the kind of patient population actually getting on board with this drug as you are talking about. These people are not cancer patients looking for some extra time to live, for the most part they are just addicts looking for another fix. So this is not the easiest patient population to reach out to in the first place. If they could get a government deal to supply inmates with this stuff, now that would be something, but like I said at the start...the alcoholic population is larger than the opiate addicted population by many many times, and this drug is a money losing proposition in that area. The expanded label will help, but this will never never never be a billion dollar drug.

    • Of the two up for approval, they have a % on one and all the profit on the other. I can't remember Cramer interview which is which, but will hold thru next announcement and probably thru earnings call on Nov 1 to see what the numbers and market potential and for the price to reflect it.

      Note: Switched from Buy to Strong Buy

    • Think like the big sharks generally do (i.e. "FM sharks") and you'll get your answer!! If I've 1000s of millions lying around in my MM account, yielding only 0.1% or so, I sprinkle around couple-millions each, in the likes of ALKS. In the 2012-13 timeframe, this is a $50-75 range stock ... that's all I would care about then! Very, VERY BIG market reach!

 
ALKS
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