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Alkermes plc Message Board

  • monoxidecarbon monoxidecarbon Jul 26, 1999 12:04 PM Flag

    ALKS with Tom Schreier on CNBC

    Tom Schreier, from US Bancorp Piper Jaffray,
    during Word on the Street, discussed ALKS today. He
    likes biotechs better than pharmaceuticals. A summary
    of his comments and a link to more information is on
    the CNBC Specials page. Follow the
    links:

    http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply?s=pharmacognizance&sreply=101653
    39

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    • Why would anyone want to merge with ICOS? Its had a recent failure and probably doubts the quality of its pipeline. Furthermore its price has steadily declined since May-June.

    • I've had this stock from when it was 1 1/2 and
      purchased at various points up to 22 when I sold. I think
      we will see 40 short term and I will make a decision
      at that point. Good luck with your quest for
      profit!

      Steve

    • A lot of biotechs are ripping it up. Maybe some
      internet guys moving in? Immunex, Genentech etc, all doing
      very well. I can't explain the volume though in any
      other terms than those which you mention. Up strong
      today on (relatively) small volume. Technical chart
      guys who have looked at the stock think indicators are
      good for a run to 40.

      I have finally made
      enough gain in the stock from exercising my $5.00
      warrants to break even on my Cereport partnership
      investment a long, long time ago. It would be nice to have
      my patience rewarded with some profits. I'm not
      greedy. I look forward to seeing how we do short term. Do
      you have a stop in place?

    • I bought back in today at 34 5/16. Waited a week
      to see what was going to happen. My intuition tells
      me something is up, either merger or
      acquistion-wise. Going to stay long this time.

      Steve

    • ICOS "is actively seeking to buy or partner with
      smaller drug
      development companies to keep its product
      pipeline filled with promising new drugs". ALKS doesn't
      have products as such - it is drug delivery. SO I do
      not see this as a fit

    • for 8/18. Does anyone think there may be a connection between the hude blocks of ALKS being boought and this plan of ICOS'. Does anyone think it is a fit?

    • Its impossible to accurately assess a company
      this way.
      But since you asked, my opinions are:
      hgh sales will be much higher. EPO and risperdal much
      lower but both should get to market sooner than your
      estimates.

    • Take low double digit royalty as you suggested I
      arrived at the following:-
      (1) rhGH, assume 12% of 200
      millions =24 millions, NDA just filed and may have to wait
      a year thsu discount 25% = 18 millions (1999 value)

      (2) Risperdal, assume 12% of $2 billions =240
      millions. Phase 3 just started and may takle up to 4 years
      .let say 3, and then 1 year for NDA. IT may then be
      marketed in 4 years. Discount 30% a year = 84 millions in
      1999
      (3) EPO, assume 12% of 2000 millions =240 millions.
      Assume it will take7 years to get it to market. Discount
      30% = 38 millions

      Just these three together
      gives a subtotal = $140 millions 1999 value. Current
      Rand D and administration Expenses from the 10K is $63
      millions. This yield a net = $77 millions

      There are
      about 25 million shares outstanding (40 millions
      authorized)
      Thus we arrive at a total of $3 a share ESP.
      At a
      PE of 27 = Present value = 81,
      Since no one pays
      full price, I discount it by 25% (comapre with other
      biotech I know of).The present value of ALKS , without
      considering any other Phase 1, 2 trial drugs is $61 today.

      How much am I off ?

    • They get mfg revenues/royalties which equate to
      low double digits according to analysts.
      For PE,
      how about seeing what idph, bgen, imnx and medi are
      at? Young, fast growing biotechs can carry far higher
      PE's than big pharma.

    • Does anyone know what is the royality rate for
      rhGH, Risperdal, and EPO ? I read through the 10K real
      fast but cannot find such information.
      I am trying
      to guess what this puppy is worth by assigning a 5%
      rate (sort of industrial standard), using 25 million
      shares outstanding, a PE ratio of 27 (for big pharms
      these days) and a discount rate of 30% per year push
      out. Are these assumptions valid ?

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