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Alkermes plc Message Board

  • akathka akathka Feb 19, 2000 4:48 PM Flag

    Barrons

    Barron's. Read it and weep!!! A well deserved pan from one of the savy fund managers in the healthcare mutual fund field.

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    • trout in the California Sierra Nevada's.

    • What does Lahontaa stand for-just curious. It is
      understood that quite a bit of short stock will be replaced
      by excerised stock.
      Quite a few investors have
      sold short to protect profits in their warrants due to
      the dramatic rise in the stock price. I know quite a
      few who are just now doing this- I agree it is not
      significant compared to outstanding shares- but it will
      affect short interest. Also remember that insiders sold
      most of their stock
      in early January at 49-51.
      Continue to hold and enjoy the squeeze but this will
      end!!!!

    • The drug life cycle use to be about 7 - 9 years
      give or take a few. during that period a pharma
      company was pretty sure of having the first line
      treatment locked for a good run. Not so anymore. The pace
      of development and new discoveries has excelerated
      over the last 4-6 years. a pharma company now has
      about 3 possibly 5(?)years of exclusivity before
      something new and improved comes along. Check out the
      technology ALKS is using to deliever large and small
      molecule drug actives in relation to genetic treatments or
      drug substance pK. Read up on the technique Amgen(I do
      not own any) used to give J& J a kick in the pants
      regarding epo. Bottom line is new stuff and approaches are
      flying out of the drug delievery labs at a very fast
      pace. What is hot today can be old tomorrow. I work in
      this area and have spent years on projects only to see
      them cancelled because something new came out and made
      our program obsolete. Just a fact of the drug
      business. ALKS has done a good job with a technology that
      has been around for a long time. Just a fact.

    • many limited partners have exercised there
      warrants already? Give me a break. Even if none had, the
      amount of stock pales in comparison to daily volume. The
      exercise of the warrants will have no effect on the price
      of the stock. Give me a break.

    • check out: http://wpl1.homepage.com (daily estimates).

    • What do you mean about a down-wave. Explain yourself- do not just give a negative- anybody can say or do that.

    • What looks like the wave of the future in drug delievery can be obsolete in the blink of an eye. ALKS is riding high, but the wave does have a down side.

    • R.Pops sold 175,000 shares on 1/5 @ 49-51,R
      Breyer sold 100,000 shares on 1/5 @49-51. M. Landine
      sold 49,500 shares 0n 1/5 @ 49.82, and J. Frates sold
      4,000 shares on 1/3 @ 49-50. These sales were almost
      all of their holdings, only J Breyer has 26,100
      shares left, Pops has 3,591. This does not reflect any
      options, but this is very significant! Do you think they
      thought their stock was worth $180 a share? The move in
      the stock is substantial short covering. This will
      end quickly- because a bucket load of warrants at
      $5.00 a share expires in March- I guarantee you that
      when these are exercised- there is going to be some
      serious selling!!(especially at this level) A very
      generous valuation on alks is 70-80. Insiders sold
      everything at 49. If long- enjoy the squeeze but be ready
      dump prior to March!!!!!

    • If you are wondering why this this is a straight
      upward climb you don't have to go too far. Go to this
      link and do a search on ALKS and read August1998
      link:

      http://www.kiplinger.com/kipsearch/

      I think what you need to look at here is the fact
      that the partnerships that ALKS is creating with the
      big drug companies are keeping them from losing their
      edge to the generic drug makers by holding their
      patents longer through new delivery systems. This keeps
      the Watsons and other generic makers away from their
      profitable product lines. That is what is making ALKS an
      attractive buy. Before all is said and done this company
      will either be turning a monster profit through its
      arrangements with the major drug companies or one of them will
      buy it up. I certainly wouldn't want to be the one
      who tried to buy them though, because it would be a
      war with all the other major drug companies, albeit
      nice for the shareholders.

      One other thing is
      the fact that there main delivery method is through
      inhalation and just recently there have been studies done
      that are showing inhaled insulin as the best way to
      treat diabetes. If ALKS gets even a small piece of this
      market $200/share will seem like a very low price for
      this stock. It has run from 19 in August of 98 to 165
      today and I think there is plenty of room for
      additional appreciation. Is it a $400/share stock? I can't
      tell you that, but I'm not about to sell my position
      in the near future because I think that $200/share
      is right around the corner.

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