Disposable income, which is what drives the consumer, is down 3%. This is huge. Further emerging markets in trouble. China also looking to deflate with growth slowing there too. MCD's, which is a great indicator of the US economy has a 3.3% drop in US sales. Latest jobs' reports are terrible.
On top of it all, Visa is wasting millions on these stupid Olympics TV ads. People will use their credit card if they need or want to. The TV has nothing to do with sales. What a waste. CEO an idiot.
hundley, you shorted the wrong stock! int'l growth is ROCKIN" - and will for decades, and the US affluent are spending more, the broke sometimes charge MORE when they are hurting (if they don't pay their bills, V still gets the transaction fee), and more and more historically cash and check takers are taking credit and debit. V's competition is CASH! V hasn't had a less than 12% growth year since their inception.
Hey hundley, why won't you answer my questions about your post of Feb 6?:
Some questions about your 3 points:
1. So you think a PEG of 1 is appropriate for a stable growth stock? Is there a single stable growth stock you can point to with a PEG of 1?
2. Visa sales and earnings outside the US, including in other developed markets, are less than half its total. So why say Emerging Markets Is Where V Makes Money?
3. Overall (though there are some outliers), emerging markets growth rates in 2014 are projected to be higher than in the US. For instance (from the Jan 18th Economist p89), I see 2014 estimates of Indonesia +5.6% real & +12.6% nominal (including inflation), Nigeria +7.0% real, India +4.3% real & +14.4% nominal. Given personal expenditures rise at the nominal (not real) rate, why does this suggest card transaction volumes will drop?
4. Do you see US consumers limiting their credit card use because the US market is tanking right now? Do you think emerging markets consumers are more influenced by their local stock market than US consumers are?
5. So the market tanked in January, you think that means it will continue to tank until April? Chartist?
" MCD's, which is a great indicator of the US economy"
Have ever eaten at a MCD? That stuff will kill you and I think people are starting to change their eating habits.
Online sales need to be included in your analysis.
Brick and mortar sales are not the way to measure anymore....unless it's groceries.
Any data you get out of China is fiction. They tell people what they want to hear.
They manage the market. If they have a bad number they will give you a great number next time to correct for it. You cant believe anything they say. They should get a Pulitzer prize in fiction for the stuff they publish
cant argue with that, they were not good.
However, there is going to a mass exodus of Baby Boomers from the work force over the coming years and I think the work force will get to a point were there might be a labor shortage.
PS go short something else, you're not fooling anyone
Excellent point that ONLINE SALES aren't included in retail numbers. ONLINE RETAIL sales are surpassing brick and mortar sales. As well, the WEATHER had something to do with the POOR unemployment numbers. I'm not saying that unemployment isn't a problem, but the weather does keep people away!!!