Retailers are going back to VCI model as sales drop when the print does not get into the consumers hands. This post is way too negative. The cos cash flow and debt reduction are improving everytime they speak. Shorting this is nuts!
They quote a nice EPS for 2008 but don't pay a dividend anyhow - hhhmmmm - and then they state that rev growth will be low to mid figures and that won't even be till the 2h of 2008 (so what will the 1h be!!!!)- they sure know how to USE the print - don't they.
8:33AM Valassis issues upside Y08 guidance (VCI) 11.66 : Co sees adjusted cash EPS of $2.14-2.39 vs $1.31 consensus; co sees low-to mid-single digit pro forma rev growth, most of which is expected to come in the 2H. Co expects increased adjusted EBITDA of between $260-280 mln compared to 2007 guidance. "The ADVO, Inc. integration cost synergies have exceeded our 2007 targets and our shared mail optimization efforts have improved margins. We expect to continue driving cost synergies and optimization in the first half of 2008. In the second half of 2008, we will transition our focus to revenue synergies. This is expected to set the stage for long-term revenue and earnings growth."
Guess you dont much about the market. As a financial perspective, VCI accountabilty is questionable and does not reflect the true picture of the state of the business. Advo even supposedly errored in double billing, hmmmm increased receivables to reflect a greater asset value than actual. I question their accounting practices in painting a very one sided financial view.
unfortunately, it looks like their accounting firm has no problem signing off on brewed books. click wouldn't put it past them to try it well into 2008 before having to "provide updated guidance" due to a MAJOR rev/earnings shortfall.
Looks like a few traders aren't too sure about guidance for 2008 either with this morning's price drop. Internet is taking over print - economy is borderline - inflation is a really threat as is a recession - and the housing boom hasn't hit it's all time reset high (supposedly February) - doesn't seem like tomorrow's guidance (unless conjured up) would be very positive for 2008 - any thoughts.