There's no question that 1-2 more years of this will lead to a more rapid burst of the housing bubble, 15-30% in certain absurd markets in California. If interest rates were slightly higher it would have started already.
First Albany's analysis is based on public numbers of a reduciton in backlog, lack of new large new orders and increased competition
"We are downgrading Itron to Underperform from Neutral because the company reported a meaningful sequential decline in backlog, recently encountered pricing pressure from major players like Schlumberger, and would need to sign a large contract similar in size to the National Grid contract in order to meet its 2003 revenue guidance. "
this analysis is NOT bogus but carefully thought out ... could be correct or wrong....
the market thought it was more to the point than not!
Yes a decline in backlog. In this environment it should be a given. I just can't understand how he knows what kind of business they are losing. If the company says growth between 11 and 17%, I'm happy. I don't care how they get it, just sign the earnings scorecard by August and get it. Your right about what the street thought, I just can't see the extent of the loss.
the market had been trending down, and these astrology programs are only marking the trend. every program on line that give weight to momentum is telling investors to SELL. so what does that cause? a self fulfilling prophecy that has no basis in fundamentals. that is why a moron like bunkerdog can throw a dart and go just about anywhere. notice he was not smart enough to find a company with really high PE and bad fundamentals.
if First Albany wants to downgrade a company that has shown outstanding growth and beating estimates and a best ever quarter,
let us find out what they have done to other stocks
1. whether they upgraded other stocks when they FAIL in their performance
2. Whether they downgraded them when they show SUCCESS
3. Let us find out the major customers of First Albany and write to them about the kind of advice they get from First Albany.