I am thinking to start my short position in materials?
Any thought? Chinese market has been down for a while, Chinese inflation is much bigger than expected. We are getting similar data in US. It looks like central bankers have to start tightening or it is going to be ugly. QE is soon over, in a couple of months. Materials and miners are way over stretched.
Well...good luck with that. There may be a correction. Gold has been flattish for a month or two. I don't see it going down much and frankly, any quick move up could be met with fierce buying and we could see gold over $1500 quickly.
Silver and copper seem to be the most stretched to me. However, silver is historically still underowned and below it's inflation adjusted high by quite a bit. Silver could back off $5 easily, but again, it chould be mid $30's easily in 2011.
Copper is pretty high. Oil is too...but looks like it should go higher.
This rare elements issue doesn't look to be abating any time soon. China is playing real hard ball here and this could spark all kinds of volatility.
My take is it might not be a bad idea to take a little off the table, but a wholesale shorting of the sector looks like a bad bet to me.