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Itron, Inc. Message Board

  • shsta shsta Jul 22, 1998 10:30 AM Flag

    Huh? 2

    Why the big slide? Is this the lowest this stock has ever been?

    • I noticed yesterday that yahoo didn't show a
      trade lower than 4 5/8ths yesterday. They did show the
      high volume though. Now yahoo doesn't show the high
      volume at all!! The same is now true quote.com also!!!
      This gives added credience that these now nonexistent
      trades were short covering transactions and they should
      show up in the future in a decreased outstanding short
      position for the month of October. Time will tell if my
      assumptions are right or wrong. skep

    • Well Griff your guess that the high volume
      Tuesday could be due to margin calls certainly makes
      sense on a stock price basis However, yesterday we had
      even higher volume and the stock price is still
      steadyish. If we were getting longs squeezed out by margin
      calls there should be panic selling(lots of small
      trades at an ever decreasing price).

      This didn't
      happen on Tuesday or Friday. I saw the individual trades
      logged on Quote.com on Friday; 12:13:16 p.m. 268,500
      shares at 4 3/8ths ; 12:13:39 p.m. 100,000 shares at 4
      3/8ths ; 12:14:01 p.m. 368,000 shares at 4 1/2. These 3
      trades accounted for most of yesterdays volume(by far).
      I don't think that they can be explained as margin
      calls, but I am open to your suggestions.

      Seems
      to me a more plausible explaination is either a
      block buy/sell combination by large holders(mutual
      funds) or a short covering transaction by whomever has
      been holding the large short position in ITRI for a
      couple of years now.

      Seeing how I'm long, I tend
      to hope the latter is true. The short position has
      started to decrease
      lately(~20%)
      http://www.viwes.com/invest/shorts/query.cgi
      and possibly this last few days unusual trading
      activity is a continuation of this trend(once again, my
      wishful thinking,ggg).

      Anyway, I asked this
      question once before, Has the knife finally stop falling?
      Last time I didn't offer a answer. This time I suggest
      the answer is yes. The bottom was reached a week and
      a half ago(10/07/98) when there was some true panic
      selling(many small trades, at ever decreasing prices with a
      small rebound at the close). There were 121,600 shares
      traded that day, around 3 times the preceding daily
      volume.

      The next couple of months short interst data will
      tell the tale. It seems like its always difficult to
      know when to take a profit on a trade, whether long or
      short. skep

    • Only a guess Skep. Margin calls. I AM surprised that the specialists haven't raped the longs more.

    • You seem to be a trader, what's going on? 400,000
      shares traded of this normally low volume stock and the
      price seems to be steadyish. Could some of those long
      term shorts be coming out? I have no idea, just
      wondering. skep

    • I too rode this up to $56 and back down. I got
      out and back in in the low 20s only to get burned
      again. The last cycle I got smart and shorted at $26. I
      am net profitable, but not by much.

      This
      company has a great story...except they can't make any
      damn money...and that's what it is all about, isn't
      it? Is it management? Or won't the frugal utilities
      pay the necessary price? We won't know the answer to
      that unless management is changed, and they seem VERY
      slow to do that.

      This turkey will continue to
      head lower until management is changed. BTW, it won't
      rally on news of a big order. The Street is tired of
      hype. They need to deliver EARNINGS, not orders.

    • Even Itausam will agree that they are trying to
      go with the products that got them to $50. The
      downturn began when the competitors started turning out
      products that were beyond Itron's. I, for one, am out.

    • sorry to hear that. dang! live and learn. i have
      to admit
      this seems to defy reason. the company
      has good revenue, just
      not so hot earnings. the
      technology seems like something whose
      time has come. and
      yet, the market doesnt seem to be awakened
      yet.
      utilities are a hard sell.

      will it happen someday?
      i'd say likelier than not. will
      itron be around?
      also, likelier than not. two things
      against
      them:

      1. sometimes a company can have great products and
      be a bit
      ahead of its time. just enough ahead to
      actually fail in the
      market.

      2. $2/shr is a
      tough road to hoe. i have to say i've never
      seen a
      stock hit that sort of number and recover. oh,
      they
      try; the price dances and shimmers but its usually
      last gasping.
      sometimes management even succeeds in
      confirming the death
      throes by reverse splitting. its a
      long painful ride, but
      eventually there's the
      inevitable contested argument with nasdaq
      over delisting
      usually culminating in eviction to pink
      sheets.
      there's no return from pink sheets once you've been in
      the big
      leagues.

      i'm sorry to say its
      curtains if the dreaded $2 rears its
      ugly
      head...

      d

    • One of the first rules of investing is never fall
      in love with a stock. I broke that one big time! I
      have rode this one up to $50 and all the way back
      down! Each time I think it has hit bottom I have
      increased my position only to watch it slide again. You may
      be right about the $2.00, after all you did predict
      a slide to $5.00.

      I still think Itron
      stands to gain when more and more utilities deregulate.
      It is for that reason I am still increasing my
      position in this stock. Itron will emerge a winner! I have
      a number of years before retirement, so I am going
      to hang on and go for the ride on this one. Am I a
      stupid or a wise investor? Who the hell knows. Today I
      maybe a bum, but tomorrow I could be a wise old
      investor.

      I will still have faith even if it slides to $2.00.

    • they tried to put a positive spin on the future
      of things but
      the loss is greater than expected
      (.15) for the quarter.
      itron investors have a
      history of taking things on the chin;
      wonder if a bid
      for $3 1/2 has a chance of hitting...

      d

    • ...look a little bit lower....

      So at $5.50
      a share today, exactly when will that day be
      when
      we wake up to find ITRI gapping up to $14? My gosh,
      this stock
      is starting to fall down to Cellnet
      territory. How undignified.

      >By: HOTBEGGER
      >
      Date: Aug 10 1998
      > 11:57PM EDT

      >Looks
      like your short has stalled out. You are going to wake
      up
      >one day soon and ITRI will gap up to 14 at open and
      spoil your
      >chicken shit shorting party, greedy
      pompous ass.

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ITRI
42.22+0.26(+0.62%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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