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Itron, Inc. Message Board

  • ChiefTenBears ChiefTenBears Jul 26, 1999 11:33 AM Flag

    ITRON, CELLNETDATA,CONNECTYSIS,-IMO

    All positioned nicely for the new age of intelligent data collection and energy marketing.
    These buds are going to bloom.
    Largeness is on the horizon.
    Steak your claim.
    GJM

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    • Well, at least ITRON is making money.
      All that
      is needed is a boost in sales. Sales have been flat
      and are projected to be flat for several quaters. It
      is going to be a slow process....

      CNDS, which
      has a negative book value and loses around $2 peer
      share,,,with projected loses looking forward... just got
      hammered and lost 62% of it's value.

      This makes me
      appreciate Itron more than ever. Mike said we have the bread
      and butter...maybe he can serve up a few steaks down
      the road.

    • You sure are right in that ITRI can go either up
      or down. The down part has been well proven over the
      last several years. Now if the up part could be proven
      over the next several years, maybe I could become a
      momentum player. :-) skep

    • I am a little pissed too. The retail stocks were
      out of favor and NOBODY wanted to own them. That was
      3 years ago and look at them now. Itron is out of
      favor on wallstreet and when and if they turn the
      corner, maybe we can all write about momemtem players
      starting to take part of the move.

      I have been
      waiting for 2 years and have bought at an average $16. I
      am waiting just like you. The pink sheet comment was
      a worse case senario.

      Sorry if I offended
      you, but this baby can go....UP or DOWN!!

    • I said the maket favors 'value' investors right
      now--IMHO--and that ITRI is a great value for longer term
      investors. Momentum investors(?) are typically not long
      term--- they tend to follow the herd. Which is the best
      way to invest is a matter of choice.
      This old man
      has done very well being a value investor.
      Sorry
      about your anger and wish you better times ahead.

    • view but, no utility enters into a deal where
      there is a risk of Ch 11 activity, especially as a
      result of negotiating a deal that is bad for the
      supplier. One of the results would be a termination of the
      contract's terms meaning the post Ch 11 entity could
      negotiate new terms and a utility would not want to be on
      the receiving end of that deal since they would by
      then be dependant on the AMR system for monthly cash
      flow, have the risk of a commission prudence review
      etc. If the bankruptcy happens before the system is
      deployed there is a risk it doens't get deployed until the
      Ch 11 action is over and the utility is stuck with a
      real mess of partial deployment and no source.


      The bankruptcy idea sounds like a simple solution but
      it is not.

    • Cellenet's current strategy of getting the
      business at any cost is clearly borne out in their
      reported financials. I doubt that Peco or Schlumberger
      really care if Cellnet's model fails and Cellnet goes
      into bankruptcy. They could come out of Chapter 11
      with new equity holders[their current debtholders]and
      the current management and corporate structure
      intact, only the current equity holders[Ha, there is no
      current equity at Cellnet, just shareholders holding a
      negative book value stock]being wiped out. Peco and
      Schlumberger would work with whomever controls the surviving
      corporation.

      As to what deal Itron walked away from, I don't know
      which one of the two you mention it was but they did
      leave one on the table, considering it not profitable
      enough. And Itron hasn't made a profit in a long
      while.

      Itron's competitor Cellnet isn't stupid. Only their paper
      holders have the potential of being so. With the past
      poor management at Itron, of course the same could be
      said of Itron's outside shareholders.

      I don't
      know who started Cellnet nor their reason for doing
      so, but the effect has been to really take the once
      profitable AMR business and essentially run it into the
      ground from a bottom line viewpoint. I suppose
      Avista[the former Washington Water Power and the
      Pentzer[sp?]Corp. who helped to establish Itron and then spun it
      off as an independent could care less what happens to
      Itron now. Fact of the matter is, I still would like to
      know who shorted the hell out of Itron years ago and
      are still holding those long term short
      positions.

      Outside equity holders are always subject to large risks.
      skep

    • from Itron that CellNet took the PECO deal at a
      loss and that Itron was happy to walk away from the
      'bad deal'. I am no Lou Gerstner, Warren Buffet etc
      but explain to me why anyone walks from a deal worth
      $400 million and 2 million meters. To believe Itron's
      story I have to accept that three companies with
      similar interests are all brain dead. I don't know much
      about Schlumberger but they are no dummies and neither
      is PECO. To believe the Itron story you have to
      believe that PECO is doing business they supposedly
      believe may bankrupt the supplier and leave PECO with a
      mess, that Schlumberger is too stupid to know if the
      deal will make money or not or perhaps are willing to
      contribute to ruining a good set of financials from the oil
      patch business - I don't think so, and CellNet is
      willing to lose more money. When the reason being posed
      requires this much assumption of stupidity on the part of
      three firms, and at least two of which have much better
      management teams than Itrons, then I begin to beieve in the
      simpler explanation - Itron lost the deal and can't admit
      it for fear of losing face. Will Itron claim that
      the deal with Pittsburgh water was a money loser
      too??? Here was a case where Itron had the network
      inplace and a partnership with the electric utility and
      they still lost the 100,000 unit contract to CellNet.
      What's Itron's excuse here.


      CellNet now has
      8M units under contract and Itron 0.5M operating in
      fixed network AMR but had Itron taken the deal it would
      have been 2.5M for Itron and 6 M for Cellnet - still a
      horserace. CellNet is starting to run away with the business
      and Itron seems like it can't keep up.

      I keep
      hearing Itron management blaming everyone but themselves
      - stupid competitors willing to lose money, stupid
      customers who don't know what they're doing, stupid
      business partners helping the competition - for ruining a
      great company and from your summaries of the CC, I
      wonder if Chesser is any different.

    • kidding! And you could have lost a fortune
      investing in Itron two or three years ago. You can't
      reasonably compare the excruciatingly poor past management
      at Itron to the likes of Walmart. I just feel that
      Chesser has the potential of falling into the bad form
      that previous management had.

      I think you are
      hoping to have bought the bottom and looking for a
      momentum run with Itron. Maybe you'll get it but please
      don't call long term holders "momentum" players. Sure
      I'm pissed off but maybe I've got the right to be.
      skep

    • for Tax loss selling. It's a major bargain at
      this level. IMHO, whether you're a trader or a real
      investor this one should reward you nicely. If the name
      was 'itron.com' it would be getting the attention it
      deserves.
      Thanks to all the impatient folks who give up
      so easily, we can add to our positions and benefit
      just like the post said about Walmart stock. In fact
      you could have bought almost any retail stock 2-3
      years ago and made a fortune. There are 'momentum' and
      'value' styles of investing. This market really favors
      the latter if you want to sleep at night and enjoy
      the future.

    • .. is about as absurd as when Itausam[an old,
      faithful but now delinquent poster]compared Itron to
      Microsoft. And the pink sheets are just about as a unlikely
      suggestion[notice I said just about ggg].

      Chesser has to
      start cutting some of Itron's top-heavy management and
      do it in a quick, open manner. Listening to the
      C.C.[even though I wasn't feeling or listening well], I got
      the impression of a reluctance on Chesser's part of
      moving quickly. I also got the impression that now that
      he's a bit more established in his new position that
      he still feels he is working for the utilities in
      general and also Itron's establishment and not Itron's
      shareholders. At least that's the way he came across to me and
      I say again I had the flu at C.C. time. I think the
      street is sending him the same message.

      And his
      story about employees coming up to him and saying they
      would do anything to make Itron a success, even if it
      meant their termination. Give me a break. If Chesser
      walked up to me, I'd tell him to cut his own
      renumeration[and that of all senior management, the one's that
      weren't fired that is]. get off his butt and start making
      public management cuts and get those damn press and
      shareholder relations departments fired up. Humphreys is dead
      weight and give me another break, so is Redmond. Let's
      get this cutting started and overwith and not make it
      one's life work.

      If Cellnet wants all the new
      industry contracts at a loss, well there's not much he can
      do about that. But when ask about Cellnet[like at
      the C.C.], he should say straight out they are
      competition with no bottom line sense and as such, a truely
      healthy marketplace has no room for that kind of
      competition.
      I really don't know what Itron's established powers
      are currently thinking. but I wouldn't be surprised
      to see a take-under by someone, maybe a control or
      meter manufacturer. skep

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