I took 20 min yesterday and listened to their Nov 11 concall, while going over their numbers.
While I agree CDTI is cheap, if you listen to that call, you will know why.
As to the estimates for next yr, which are the result of 1 analyst, only 1 "sell side" guy asked questions (there was a guy from Zacks who was really useless and asked 1 or 2 questions), and that guy was clueless. Or, shd i say, is clueless, bcse he still shows an increase in rev for next yr, and that call made next yr sound very risky. It's clear Q4 is going to be strong, it's not very clear what next yr will bring.
Just FYI, if you have serious money in this stock, listen to the concall.
Yeah, let's get back to investing, but I enjoyed reading your views and comments. It was some entertainment for me. Esp the jackass part. LOL!
BTW, ADES up again, and my latest buy, MAKO doing well. Despite the screen name I use, I live near where MAKO is HQed, and they get a lot of local press. The screen name i use here is constantly interpreted as being something about the tea party, maybe you assumed that too, but I use it as a play from the Beverly Hillbilly's, where oil was called Texas tea, and i do a lot of oil investing, I don't live in TX, and I am not a tea party person. My Tx tea party refers to the oil plays in TX!!
You give Bush the benefit of your doubts. I have no doubt in my mind that he is the complete jackass that I label him. Sure he did have the CBO directives but 9/11 completely altered the situation and anyone should have had the intelligence to realise that invading Afghanistan was going to cost $ billions and budgeted accordingly. Although as Afghanistan refused to hand over Bin Laden following 9/11 I do not see what other option he had. However the invasion of Iraq was ridiculous and it was obvious that Saddam Hussein had no connection with Al Quieda and he would not have tolerated their presence. All that has been achieved by the Iraq war is to hand Iran influence over the whole region on a plate at vast cost to the US. Saddam Hussein could have been constrained by the no-fly zones and threat of missile strikes.
Incidently I did actually fly from Logan to Burlington on 9/10 and the guy that I was travelling with remarked whilst we were walking to the aircraft on the lax security at the gate at Logan. Maybe this is why it was chosen for two of the hijacks. The other ridiculous thing that probably allowed 9/11 to happen was the jealous rivalries and total lack of co-operation between the CIA and the FBI. The CIA well knew that dangerous extremists were in the country and the FBI did not.
I agree with your comment regarding the present president's budgetary management but look what he inherited from the 'jackass'.
Anyhow we diverge from the issue as to whether CDTI has a profitable future going forward and I remain bullish on reading the Management's presentation on the website of November 17.
Ha, you are right, we disagree.
I am no Bush fan, but his sins all come under the umbrella of his total commitment to free mkts. Thus he failed to respond to many things that the govt shd have done, I agree with that. He was apparently asleep when he shd have been wide awake.
Maybe he was a "complete jackass", but I see him as a guy who wasn't smart enough to see thru to BS he was being fed. People knew his pre-dispositions, and they played to them. Shame of him for not being a stronger leader.
as to his budget deficit issues, many don't recall the history of what transpired. The "Bush tax cuts" were not Bush tax cuts at all, they were at the STRONG direction of the CBO, and was voted in by a landslide from both sides.
The failure there was that the stupid CBO was extrapolating the 1998-2001 growth into 2003-2005, and urged the cutting of tax rates, in fact demanding it.
Well, 9-11 and the recession happened, Bush started those wars, and I am completely against all of them (Vietnam experience...). At the least, seeing that revenue was dropping and spending was going up, he shd have constrained the defense budget, not signed "no child left behind" or some of the enhancements he did to Medicare, without raising revenue.
The "Bush tax cuts" were not Bush tax cuts per se, but he did badly manage the economy, and the govt spending.
OK, for a US pres, maybe that makes him a jackass. But that's harsh. Most presidents fail at managing the budgets, our current pres included.
As for L Jackson, I was a NJ resident when she was the DEP director there, no doubt the EPA/DEP does a lot of good, but she is an obstructionist. Just look at the Keystone pipeline issues, there isn't debate and compromise, there's just a shut down while the EPA does their obscure stuff.
Let's just agree to disagree on her, and agree that Bushie wasn't a model we'll use for future leaders. Regardless of my view he was disconnected, or your's that is a little more harsh. I can accept either.
I will look into ADES but must take issue with your comments regarding Lisa Jackson. She has the task in restoring credibility to the EPA following its emasculation under the Bush administration. My main critcism of the EPA is now their evident preoccupation with miniscule amounts of Planinium compound emission when it has been shown in numerous trials that CDTI's Fuel Borne Catalyst Pt+ improves fuel efficiency by between 8% and 12% by promoting a more complete in-cylinder combustion, thereby reducing the emission of unburned hydrocarbons and PM and as a consequence a reduction in CO2 emission for a given amount of power produced. In short they do not seem able to trade a few milligrams of possibly alegenic Pt compound emission, although they have only been shown to be alegenic in concentration thousands of times higher than recorded by SwRI and the University of Wisconsin, in exchange for a reduction of tons of PM (Smoke/Soot) which is well proven to be carcinogenic and a primary cause of asthma.
You will probably disagree with me but I regarded Bush as a complete jackass whose budget deficit policies caused immense damage to the US economy and whose denial of the evidence of global warming wasted eight years when the problem should have been being addressed. His sole contribution, near the end of his presidency, was to promote the production of corn ethanol, which uses almost as much energy as it produces, and sent the price of corn skyrocketing with the consequent effect on animal feed and livestock prices.
David, I have another stock for you to do your thorough analysis on.
CDTI was a play by me on one of the Govt agencies I despise the most, EPA (and their state siblings), and their encroachment into our lives. Yes, some is needed, but most of their involvement is not. If you disagree, just google Agenda 21, see how truly subversive the EPA is. Not to mention, Lisa Jackson really gets under my skin, she's so arrogant.
Anyway, my other EPA play is ADES, they make emission control system for coal fired plants, and any place that wants to control CO2 and mercury emissions.
It dipped to 15 a month ago, is back to 20, and as best I can tell, is heading to 40 or 50. Of course, there's no straight line, and it is up 30% in the last 10 days.
The story is a lot like CDTI, ie, growing pockets of revenue and profits, but I think it's much more transparent. Plus, we all know how crazy the EPA and the eco nuts are about coal fired utility emissions.
I'd be interested in your thought.
David, your posts have not persuaded me to be more optimistic about CDTI, but I am persuaded that you have done a great amount of DD, and understand the issues, so congrats on that!
It also seems that you will hang in with the ups and downs, I am not that kind of investor.
CDTI is in the part of my holding that I classify as specs, not LT holds. I have a load of very low valued (generally) small cap stocks, and when they move up, I take money off the table.
CDTI moved up, I sold, but bot back. My bad!
Look at NNBR, it moved up, I shd have sold it all! Now it's way back down too. My bad, again!
Too tuff to make money in small cap specs there days!
The selling by Marxe amd Greenhouse whenever the price spikes does not help. Their fund is a short term speculative instrument but they have now sold almost two thirds of their original stake and maybe they will finally decide to hold a residual stake for a higher price. They are already well into profit.
I assume that few serious investors have looked at the latest Investor Presentation of November 17 posted on the company website. It is perhaps regretable that the management did not spell out the potential revenues over the next three years in the concall that they show so clearly in the said Investor Presentation.
Also CDTIs principal competitor has had verification of its passive DPF system withdrawn due to the catalytic coating sintering from their metalic substrate during high temperature operation and the resultant sparks causing a serious roadside fire in Washington state resulting in $20 million damage. They will now have to overcome this problem to the satisfaction of CARB before applying for re-verification which will take some considerable time.
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