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Mindspeed Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • lackeygarrett lackeygarrett Jan 15, 2013 7:05 AM Flag

    FYI: Mobile Experts Analysis Predicts Market Shift to Carrier-Grade Small Cells in 2013

    Consumer femtocell growth has slowed dramatically, and Mobile Experts has established a close tracking system so that the company can be aware exactly how many femtocells are shipped each quarter. Principal Analyst Joe Madden anticipates steady linear growth in this sector based on consumer demand and worldwide broadband penetration.

    Mr. Madden explained, “We believe that enterprise small cell solutions will solve problems for businesses and help to unify WiFi and licensed wireless, creating demand for enterprise small cells”.

    Carrier-grade small cells are expected to address the most significant problem facing the industry. Carriers are feeling the pain of limited capacity, and small cells for indoor and outdoor deployment will double each year along with the capacity required. By 2015, Mobile Experts anticipates that carrier grade small cells will rival the consumer segment in annual shipments.

    From 2009 to 2012, the small-cell market has been dominated by consumer femtocells, and the growth rate has been anemic, with weak support from mobile operators and little public awareness. From 2014 to 2017, Mobile Experts predicts a dramatic rise in small cell shipments with carrier deployment of small cells to address capacity growth requirements.

    ===========================================================

    Mobile Experts uses an Advisory Panel of 30 mobile operators, multiple infrastructure OEMs, and more than 40 semiconductor companies to validate its Small Cell forecasts. The Backhaul research includes case studies on the economics of various backhaul options, to highlight where each technology is useful. The accuracy of the 2009 femtocell forecast was notable; we predicted in May of 2009 that in 2011 1.8 million small cells would be sold, and the real total was 1.9 million.

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    • 1/28/2013

      Worldwide LTE operators should watch the network build-out, pricing and device strategies of the successful US operators, according to Chris Nicoll, Principal Analyst at Analysys Mason.

      In Analysys Mason’s new Viewpoint, LTE lessons from market leaders in the USA, we look at the go-to-market, device and pricing strategies that have created leadership positions for the top US LTE operators, and the strategies that may lead to two operators’ possible exit from the market.

      Initial comments from Chris Nicoll:
      ■The two largest 3G network operators, Verizon Wireless and AT&T, have leveraged aggressive national build-out schedules, innovative no-premium pricing, and extensive smartphone portfolios to drive users to their 4G networks. In only two years, 50% of Verizon’s mobile data is on its LTE network, and we expect the number of 3G connections to decline in the US this year, with LTE the dominant technology by 2015.
      ■The leading US LTE operators have shown a remarkable maturation of pricing strategy as they continue to increase ARPU, moving from flat rate pricing, to tiered pricing, and most recently to multi-device pricing plans, effectively monetising the consumer trend to multiple devices. Competitors are launching flat-rate plans to attract value-buyers, but long-term monetisation will remain a question for these operators.
      ■US spectrum policy has now been superceded by market activity as spectrum concerns continue to drive operator behaviour. Every major US operator has engaged in M&A or spectrum buying/swapping activities in the past 12 months. Third ranked operator Sprint has announced its intention to acquire its partner Clearwire to gain access to its 2.5GHz spectrum, while #4 operator T-Mobile has announced its plans to acquire MetroPCS for additional urban spectrum assets. Leap Wireless is actively seeking partners to use its spectrum and to provide funding to complete its LTE network build.
      ■The US mobile market is smartphone-driven and despite a relatively small initial market, operators today offer nearly 20 different models of LTE smartphones from Samsung, Apple, Motorola, HTC and Nokia.

    • 1/22/2013

      In its latest issue of outdoor small cells and carrier Wi-Fi Market Data, ABI Research forecasts that outdoor small cells will reach 500,000 units in 2013.

      “Outdoor small cell unit growth dropped slightly as 2012 actual shipments reached 278,000 - down from our previously forecast number and we expect meaningful growth to resume in the 2013/4 timeframe as the first street level small cells get deployed,” says Nick Marshall, principal analyst at ABI Research.

      “We forecast that the 1W and below small cell class, ideal for street level deployment, will exhibit the highest growth, represent almost two-thirds of unit shipments in 2013, and continue to grow to overtake the higher power 5-10W microcell shipments during 2014,” continues Marshall.

      Outdoor small cell units will grow at 52.7 percent CAGR to reach over 3.5 million units by 2018. The fastest growing outdoor class of small cells are 4G LTE small cells which will grow to reach almost 1 million unit shipments in 2018 as operators begin to differentiate their LTE services by adding capacity in key strategic locations.

      Aditya Kaul, practice director, mobile networks comments, “The challenges of small cell backhaul, site acquisition, network management, interference mitigation remain, but there is a whole new ecosystem of small cell network design, small cell as a service, installation and commissioning vendors that have emerged in the last 12 months, who are working closely with the local councils, equipment vendors and operators.” Kaul adds, “The level of discussions and debates around the deployment of outdoor small cells suggests that there is a lot of collective brainpower working hard at getting these deployed cost effectively and swiftly, which gives us confidence that the market is moving in the right direction.”

    • January 13, 2013 | By Tammy Parker

      The total wireless infrastructure market continues its downward spiral, but base station sales, particularly within Asia-Pacific, are helping keep equipment vendors busy, according to a new report.

      Expenditures in the total wireless infrastructure equipment market slid nearly 19 percent in one year, falling to $15.4 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2012, said ABI Research.

      However, macro base station expenditures provided a bright spot for the industry. During 2012's third quarter, base station expenditures reached $7.6 billion in Asia-Pacific, which accounted for more than half of the total market, said ABI. The region's base station's sales were more than 4x sales in Western Europe or North America. Further, base station expenditures in Asia-Pacific recorded year-over-year growth of 50 percent during the third quarter, while spending in North America grew only 27 percent during the same period.

      "Expenditures this quarter on LTE base station equipment were at the same level as Q2 2012 and almost 3x higher than in Q3 2011, and WCDMA technologies also grew by 21 percent versus the year ago quarter," said Nick Marshall, ABI principal analyst, networks.

      "ABI Research expects these trends to continue throughout 2013 with strong LTE growth followed by double-digit growth for WCDMA, against a background of a declining overall market as legacy technologies phase out," he said.

 
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