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G. Willi-Food Intl. Ltd. (WILCF) Message Board

  • overpaidfatcat overpaidfatcat Feb 11, 2006 10:57 PM Flag

    Twelve month 7-8 Dollar Target

    My (somewhat unscientific) projection for 2006 is at least 43 cents a share in earnings. That should equate to a 7 - 8 Dollar share price within 12 months.

    Let's say they achieve 15% sales increase in 2006 versus 2005 - which is likely. Assuming normal margins and normal expense ratios, that should add somewhere near 12-15 cents a share in earnings.

    I believe that VAT change could unofficially add another 2 - 3 cents.

    This is before the added efficiencies from the DC which are difficult to quantify, so I won't yet, but that, also, could be an upward suprise - but added depreciation could also make this a neutral in fiscal 2006. Also the Gold Frost IPO is still a bit of an unknown, so can't quantify that yet either. Finally, an acquisition could also change the metrics.

    The market overall will be flat or down - but I believe we're in for a pretty sure bet here assuming we don't go private before that, and also assuming that market accords us at least a reasonable P/E ratio.

    Best luck to all (longs).

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    • when god gave brasin to people it was a line to get were not even at that line.& bucks for this garbage no way in a life time its the worst co in the nasdaq.sell now fool.

    • True. However, this PARTICULAR newletter is rated the best performing one over the past twenty years by Hulbert. Not much dispute that he's a decent stock picker, and that he's had some spectacular successes.

      He's not above laying an egg occasionally, however. And he DID pull the plug on WILCF - I think undeservedly, and too early

      BTW, I checked back, and in March, 2005, his "buy below" price was $9. In other words, he rated it a buy all the way to 9 bucks a share.

      Can't rate this recommendation a success. My point was, his freebie doubled it in about a three day period, but it came right back down. Those that bought and sold precisely on his advice - at least on this one - broke even. Those that bought at the top - well, it's obvious what has happened so far to them.

      Hmmm. Going to bed. Long and strong.

    • Hey,

      Also, keep in mind that margins are strengthening as they add more gourmet/higher margin products to the mix. Zac