Is satellite radio going to revolutionize the radio industry? Absolutely. Can you pay too much for front row seats for said revolution? Absolutely.
One has to be realistic. I get plenty of anecdotal affirmations in email form. Yesterday someone wrote me that a satellite radio installer at Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) claimed that he was doing three times as many new car installations for Sirius as for XM. I get glowing outlooks from folks back from car dealer showrooms on the success of installed receivers on new model automobiles.
Channel checks rock. Anyone who remembers our early days of Fooldom can recall the spot on optimism for Iomega (NYSE: IOM) and its first batch of Zip drives. Yet the reality here is that even with the NFL in full swing and with Stern pitching Sirius despite Viacom's muzzle, the company has publicly projected that it will only sign up half as many new subscribers as XM will this quarter.
Yes, just yesterday my wife was on strict orders that all I want for Christmas is Sirius. But then there's my brother-in-law, who bought an XM system over the weekend and then got two more for his teen-aged kids in order to take advantage of XM's discounts on additional subscriptions.
As the early adopter columnist in our new Rule Breakers research newsletter, I couldn't be more excited to see early shareholders being rewarded lately in both Sirius and XM. This is going to be an exciting place to be as free radio bites its fingernails to the bone. But just as someone wouldn't overpay for a satellite radio receiver, it's important to pay realistic near-term prices for the satellite radio stocks as well. If your only due diligence is reading a post on a free discussion board that reads "SIRI see $10 by Monday" then you might want to take in some market basics first.
It's okay to get excited about tomorrow -- as long as you understand the lessons and gravity of today.
Even the FOOLS believe Satrad will revolutionize the radio industry. Now whos to say whats over value with such claims. No one wants to be left out of a "revolution" of such magnitude. So this stock is really a commodity. Price you pay for demand.
I hear the same valuation concerns when micrsoft back in its days. Anyone who invested little in micrsoft at its beginnings are all millionaires now.