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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • htes77 htes77 Dec 27, 2004 6:33 PM Flag

    Barrons article Strong Buy

    Will Sirius Soar with a Million More?

    Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI: Nasdaq)
    By Friedman, Billings, Ramsey (December 27, 2004)

    THIS MORNING, Sirius announced that it has surpassed its one-million-subscriber year-end 2004 guidance. While management's solid performance is largely in line with Street expectations, we expect today's announcement to be viewed as a major milestone by many investors.
    We are maintaining our Market Perform rating and $7.25 price target on Sirius, but continue to look for several catalysts to create volatility in SIRI shares over the next several weeks, including announcements at upcoming auto shows and the 2005 Consumer Electronics Show and a strategic and operational outlook from Mel Karmazin.

    Sirius announced that it has passed its 2004 year-end guidance of one million subscribers. While we expect investors to view this as a major milestone, we believe that management's performance is largely in line withStreet expectations while slightly ahead of our own.

    We are modestly raising our 2004 subscriber estimates by roughly 28,000, as we expect gift recipients and post-holiday shoppers to add to Sirius's sub level during the final days of 2004.

    We are raising our 2005 revenue and earnings per share estimates to $203.5 million and $0.44, from $200.2 million and $0.45, respectively, to account for a higher 2004 year-end subscriber estimate. We have also raised our year-end 2005 subscriber estimate to 2.62 million from 2.59 million, but have left our 2005 net subscriber additions of 1.6 million intact.

    We expect several potential near-term events to create share volatility, including: 1) positive announcements at the January Consumer Electronics Show; 2) deeper commitments from auto partners to be announced at the January 2005 auto shows; 3) strategic outlook and 2005 guidance issued by new CEO Mel Karmazin; and 4) Canadian market entry in 2005.

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    • Notice the last paragraph, the reasons for volatility are all positive news. I'll take volatility from positive news over volatility from negative news any day!! That tells me they expect it to up and down vs. down and up over the next year. I've been thinking it would be $8-10 by the end of next year ($20-$30 in two). Does anyone else think the best play of SIRI is to buy and sell for the next year?? Of course wait till after the CES to sell.

      Will Sirius Soar with a Million More?

      Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI: Nasdaq)
      By Friedman, Billings, Ramsey (December 27, 2004)

      THIS MORNING, Sirius announced that it has surpassed its one-million-subscriber year-end 2004 guidance. While management's solid performance is largely in line with Street expectations, we expect today's announcement to be viewed as a major milestone by many investors.
      We are maintaining our Market Perform rating and $7.25 price target on Sirius, but continue to look for several catalysts to create volatility in SIRI shares over the next several weeks, including announcements at upcoming auto shows and the 2005 Consumer Electronics Show and a strategic and operational outlook from Mel Karmazin.

      Sirius announced that it has passed its 2004 year-end guidance of one million subscribers. While we expect investors to view this as a major milestone, we believe that management's performance is largely in line withStreet expectations while slightly ahead of our own.

      We are modestly raising our 2004 subscriber estimates by roughly 28,000, as we expect gift recipients and post-holiday shoppers to add to Sirius's sub level during the final days of 2004.

      We are raising our 2005 revenue and earnings per share estimates to $203.5 million and $0.44, from $200.2 million and $0.45, respectively, to account for a higher 2004 year-end subscriber estimate. We have also raised our year-end 2005 subscriber estimate to 2.62 million from 2.59 million, but have left our 2005 net subscriber additions of 1.6 million intact.

      We expect several potential near-term events to create share volatility, including: 1) positive announcements at the January Consumer Electronics Show; 2) deeper commitments from auto partners to be announced at the January 2005 auto shows; 3) strategic outlook and 2005 guidance issued by new CEO Mel Karmazin; and 4) Canadian market entry in 2005.

    • SPAM!

      Rush

    • Thanks for posting that!

    • <EOM>

 
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