Last week I told you that the stock would fall to the 94.5-96 range on TU unless the company did a press release on the upcoming earnings. As you know nothing happened Mon or TU and we touched a low of 94.12 on TU. Then, by pure coincidence, the company did a press release on WED morning. I want to thank the company for making me look good.
That evening I mentioned something in a post that I assumed you all knew but troubled one person. The company has a person who monitors this board on a daily basis. While your individual opinions are not important, your collective opinions on subjects such as R/S, merger, Mel and whatever are important since the company believes that they are representative of the rest of shareholders. You represent a statistical sample of what SIRI's shareholders are thinking. Enjoy your status.
My opinion is treated a bit differently than yours. My opinion represents a view of what PART of investment community is thinking about the company at any one moment. I never pretend to represent the majority viewpoint. The Duke has a multitude of audiences, some more discreet than others. If you thought that you were sole focus of these posts, I would suggest that you rethink that position.
The correction that we had on Friday was a very normal one on low volume. I noticed in rereading my post on the zigzag accumulation pattern that I neglected to mention that it leads to a zigzag pattern to the upside. Four legs DOWN means four legs up. We have already had two so this week we are setting up for a run to 1.24 followed by another pullback.
The pullback on this leg is where the danger lies. Rumor has it that the 40M shares bought in the after market on WED are to be used as a bear raid later in the week or early next week in an attempt to drive the price back below a buck before the 10 day period is reached. Interesting rumor. Don't have a clue if it accurate at this point. See if you can come up with a strategy that can work for the week. Welcome to my world.
As always, I appreciate you taking the time to post every week and respond to our questions...which brings me to a question: you had mentioned a month or so back that SIRI would have two new highs this year, with the first occurring in the $1.37/$1.40 range, and I believe the second being in the $1.87 range (though this was not explicitly stated in the aforementioned post). My question, then, is: do you still think there will only be two new highs, or has your thinking on this shifted some?
The reason I ask is that it seems to me that the Russell rebalancing should provide a nice boost as will Howard resigning...
My view has not changed. However, the timing of the second high is important. If Stern's contract renewal is the cause of the high then we are done for the year.
If the second high occurs BEFORE Stern's renewal is announced then we get a third high at 2.18. It is all a matter of what comes first.
I ran across this tidbit this evening:
Feb 17 closing 1.05 April 14 closing 1.07
Feb 18 closing 1.13 April 15 closing 1.11
Feb 19 closing 1.08 April 16 closing 1.08
Feb 22 closing 1.09 April 19 closing 1.08
Feb 23 closing 1.12 April 20 closing 1.13
Feb 24 closing 1.10 April 21 closing 1.09
Feb 25 closing 1.07 April 22 closing 1.07???
Feb 26 closing 1.02 April 23 closing 1.03???
March 1 closing .89 April 26 ??????
Of course the trend will probably encounter an epic fail tomorrow and this post will be moot, but hopefully you will share your thoughts if you feel this is more than a coincidence.
BTW, thanks for taking the time each week to share your thoughts on Siri. Very few posters anywhere on Yahoo offer an opinion, backed by reasonable analysis. It is (as evidenced by those that take time to rate it)well followed each week for a good reason.
I was aware of the tidbit. Everyone who owns the stock should have been and should have been thankful that you brought it to there attention.
Here is a hint. This time is different.
Difference this time is the recent positive news (Subs up, upgrade, auto sales on the rise), plus the biggie, earnings out soon and should be great! If there are any more good PRs between now and then and/or we see any kind of runup to earnings, I'd be watchful of a "sell the news" just after. Have to admit though that the PPS comparison to Feb run at the 10 consecutive days is a bit scary. IMO
In the SIRI pr announcement, I noticed there was no mention of anything financial. In the Q4 pre-announcement, they highlighted FCF as one of the items released.
Does the lack of them mentioning it this time give you any pause? Or did Mel learn something from the last announcement and save something in reserve. NOTE: I realize I may have my answer before you get to this on Friday or Saturday.
I missed the (possible) trade on Tuesday and it seemed to stabilize so I decided to hold. I am feeling that we should have some more upside Wed and possibly Thur. My trigger finger will on the ready the closer we get to 1.24 (for this week).
As always thanks
That is an excellent question and one I have been pondering. There are two ways to look at the lack of the FCF issue. The negative way is that there is a problem. The second way is that the company left something that can be used on Monday, if necessary.
I have reached the conclusion that the latter is the correct answer.
I could not resist today (Wed). Sold @ 1.14. I have not bought back yet.
I see zero volume. indecision or has everyone made their bet and they are just waiting.
I'll re-evaluate my buy in tomorrow in the am.
It's been a while since I have asked you a question but I read you every week and I appreciate your contributions here.
I have two questions, thanks in advance for your answers.
On Sunday the 18th in Part II you stated " Rumor has it that the 40M shares bought in the after market on WED are to be used as a bear raid later in the week or early next week in an attempt to drive the price back below a buck before the 10 day period is reached. "
My first question is how 40M shares can be used in a bear raid when the stock was trading about 150MM per day. If it is a bear raid using naked shorting (to overcome that volume) did they even need to purchase the 40 MM shares?
Question 2 is regarding your price targets/timeframes. Can you direct us to any reading/research that you use to identify your price targets or are you using your computer model that you have written about in the past (which I assume is a proprietary system).
Your first question was how can 40M shares be used in a bear raid when the stock is trading 150M shares a day. As you saw this week, once the rumor hits the Street there are no longer any 150M share days. Volume dries up instantly. Now the 40M shares can be used as a weapon.
As to your second question. There are no sources that I can direct you to concerning the price targets or time frames that I use. The software is proprietary.
I enjoy watching everyone on the board spending endless hours trying to figure out "What is the Duke's Motive".
I told everyone what my motive was years ago...trying to help you make some money in a very difficult stock and maybe learn how a professional trader does it.