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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • dukeufinstu dukeufinstu Jun 27, 2010 11:37 AM Flag

    Duke: SIRI After The Russell Reconstruction

    I see the debate rages over whether I got the stock move correct going into the RR. Here is what I think I said. The high would be 1.10 to 1.12 and the high for the week was 1.10. I said sell 50% on TU and WED because the stock would backtrack from there. It hit an early week high of 1.09 and hit a buck a day later. I thought we would see a 10 cent rise off the 3:30 price but we only saw 4 cents--Duke's volcanic eruption was a volcanic puff of smoke. Finally I predicted the stock would sink in the after hours which it did. I will leave it to you to decide if I got it right or not.
    Let's see how we played it in the Land of The Duke. On TU we sold 25% at 1.08. On Wed 25% at 1.06 and the remainder of our TRADING holdings sold at $1.10 on Fri. The last part of our sell order was executed at 3:59:34 so blame The Duke for the stock not being higher this morning.
    As I view things this morning, you can make an equally compelling case for SIRI to go up from here or down from here. Pick certain facts from the chart like the MFI and the stock is going up. Look at the 10, 21, and 50 day MAs and the stock is headed down. This is one of those times when you throw out charts because they have been distorted by the buying going into the RR.
    I am left with unanswered questions.
    1. If the RR could only take us to $1.10 what catalyst will take us higher in the short term? I see none. The CC is SEVEN weeks away so accumulation for it is a month away. June auto sales will be DOWN from May. SIRI already announced revised yearly results om 5/16 that did not help the stock.
    2. Will the macro market help SIRI? CNBC is still 24/7 doom and gloom and while this is a slow recovery I do not see a double dip in the economy. The market doesn't get it yet so we will either see a crack down to 950 on the S&P or this type of rolling correction where we keep bouncing off 1040 until just BEFORE Labor day. No help for SIRI.
    3. Are the market mechanics that you seem to ignore or not understand stacked against SIRI? The MM just unloaded 350M shares of SIRI and are now either short SIRI or have low inventories. MM are WHOLESALERS of stock. They buy low and sell high to the PUBLIC. My take is that they force the price DOWN to replenish supplies before a POTENTIAL rise going into the CC. The shorts did not cover. Sorry folks, no short squeeze. The shorts want to force the price down to cover and so do the MM. To me it is game, set and match that we are headed to the low 90's and maybe the mid 80's.
    Finally, when I reviewed the sale of our block at $1.10 there were HUNDREDS of buys with none over 50,000 shares. The public was buying the breakout was the pros were selling. Another bad sign.
    Everyone else in the Western world is predicting SIRI will surge from here so there are plenty of contrary opinions for you to use. In the mean time we have buy orders in from 90 down to 83 so if there is a sell off it should have a V shaped look to it as the shorts seek to cover.

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    • cmconnole@sbcglobal.net cmconnole Jul 7, 2010 6:29 PM Flag

      Duke, do you still we'll test the 83 cent level, if not what is a good entry point? Thanks

    • I see the debate rages over whether I got the stock move correct going into the RR.

      Let's see how we played it in the Land of The Duke. On TU we sold 25% at 1.08. On Wed 25% at 1.06 and the remainder of our TRADING holdings sold at $1.10 on Fri.


      **********************************************************************************

      No debate necessary. You were wrong and refuse to admit your mistake. Yea, you sold again at the top.

      Does anyone actually believe this poster?

    • I have only 1 simple question.

      If the Duke Group sold all their position at $1.08, $1.06, $1.10 and predict the stock will drop to anywhere between $.83 and $.90, why didn't they short the heck out of it between $1.06 and $1.10? Is the Duke Group only able to bet one way on SIRI?

      If they are calling for a drop in excess of 20%, why wouldn't they play it down? I do not get it. I appreciate his posts and insight, but with their predictions in place, why not make money on the way down as they did on the way up? Per his post, they have 0 holdings in SIRI.

      Any insights or thoughts?

      • 3 Replies to mxv0031
      • <If they are calling for a drop in excess of 20%, why wouldn't they play it down? I do not get it. I appreciate his posts and insight, but with their predictions in place, why not make money on the way down as they did on the way up? Per his post, they have 0 holdings in SIRI.>

        Because The Duke is short for the short term and log for the long term. At least I think that is what he wrote.

      • There no reason intrinsic to siri for it to drop other than short selling. Institutions aren't selling, and most retail holders aren't selling. So while there might not be news to trigger a dramatic up move, there is no reson for the opposite.

        Even without a squeeze, shorts eventually will be forced to cover.

        Outside events are my only worry. The Jerusalem Post has a story regarding the establishmnet of an Israeli base in Saudi Arabia. If this is true, events will unfold shortly.

        If Bin Laden had a cow over a US base, what do you think he's having at this report?

      • Obviously I can’t speak (or type) for anyone but myself…….honestly I think the whole shorting thing has been way over blown…..first of all SIRI isn’t marginable……that removes most shorts period ….The MMs can legally naked short sell equities as long as it doesn’t manipulate the PPS…..so the only folks shorting are those that hold the toxic converts and the MMs…… that is why the short interest is rarely if ever above 250 – 275 million…….A relatively small amount when you look at the over all balance of the scene …… I highly doubt ANY of them post on this freakish web board….….think about it……on those low volume days between heavy selling and short sales….. the MMs can push the price wherever they want it…..I agree with Duke in that the MMs make money by buying low and selling higher…..very simple…..the MMs will drive this lower to accumulate…… flipping a million shares (out of billions of shares) for a penny is still 10k……. no matter how you look at it 10k a day or even a week is good money…….imo NOBODY wants SIRI to become marginable……the powers that be will fight to keep control……they are making way too much money not to….. Duke has always advocated for selling higher and buying lower…….shorting just isn’t realistic for SIRI…..

    • As I view things this morning, you can make an equally compelling case for SIRI to go up from here or down from here.
      ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
      pure genius,why couldn't I predict the stock might go up or the stock might go down......DOC

    • For those of you who are day traders and rely on advice from people on this board, like Duke, your luck is as good as someone going to Vegas and playing the slots. A lot of you guys are, well quite frankly, idiots.
      When Sirius dropped to almost a nickel a share, I took some money and invested in it. I researched the company's situation at the time, and kept up to speed with how they were performing. I followed their every bit of legitimate news that came out, paid attention to their earnings, and even checked out the Best Buys and auto dealers. I know about a dozen people that have the subscription. I make that attempt to see what my investment is doing. Sure it's still a bit of a gamble, but at least I make that effort. The best investment advice is to do your own research. And for you "wanna be day traders", I'm willing to guarantee you would make out with a better return if you would just hold your shares for a year or a couple, or longer...rather than trying to day trade off of the advice morons like Duke. The guy is probably a "stay at home" leaching off of daddy's riches selling World of Warcraft characters and make believing he's a stock guru (which is what he does to try to convince himself his life is a fulfilling one).
      Good luck homos, and don't be an idiot, make your own conclusions.

      • 1 Reply to sir_benzo
      • Sir_benzo

        The CEO of Whole Foods was busted on a Yahoo Message Board.. There's also an Amazing article in last months GQ on the topic of A Genius Trader who frequented message boards prior to being discovered by GS - There are Pofessional Traders ALL Over these threads and your UNsophisticated homophobic comment brings me to my conclusion, which is that I'd be better served having you on ignore and Donate Money from my " want ta be day trader" bank account to A Charity of your choice in your name- word

    • Anyone on here that says you got it wrong last week should quit reading your posts since they obviously can't interpret what you say week in and week out. Nevertheless, the bashing by the masses has really stepped up - and likely fitting considering you've gone negative.

      MOC turned out to be the best selling option for the week. I sold at various levels throughout the week. I even bought the mid-wk dip at 1.02. The last 2 trade sales I had on were an MOC and limit order. But, I unfortunately didn't get to cut in front of the lunch line for my 1.10 limit order to execute. So I'm stuck with one final trading position to unload on Monday at what looks like will be a smaller profit - but still a profit unless we gap under 95 at the open. Now that would be a quick drop.

      I still don't get the entire move by the pros here but then again I won't have to. I'll watch from the sidelines and buy whenever they decide to take care of business.

      I think it was Solo or someone else on here that mentioned a little concern about being on the sidelines for a Stern announcement. I say no worries - he's on vacation for 2 weeks beginning Mon. So from that standpoint, we're in the clear to remain on the sidelines until at least mid-July. Besides, they haven't stepped up the drama about it on the show yet and that likely needs to happen first before he announces he's coming back. That's just what he does.

      For anyone taking a break from SIRI, take a look at BBI. It has been a trading gem itself as of late and there could be plenty of other opportunities to trade it in the near future. But it is a lot more risky than SIRI at this point, esp since its turnaround story is a little difficult to see. In terms of its debt situation, it's sitting right where SIRI was in Mar '09 when it traded to 5c. BBI just saw a takedown to 16/17c on a 22M volume day on 6/14, but the short interest has since decreased 18% (see 6/15 report). The co needs to recapitalize its debt and is hopeful to do so outside of court. The pros exiting this trade could be a telling sign for an upside move to come. But don't take my word for it...see for yourself and good luck.

    • You are an idiot, that is not what you said. You have been sooooooooo wrong on SIRI just admit it. Be the bigger person.

      Good luck at the wsop.

    • In other words Short BP & take a break from Siri.

    • Thanks Duke,
      I think you made a good call....... sold at $1.0925 at 3:59. Smaller profit than I hoped for, but still a profit! I'll be watching for the sell off to get back in.

    • Of course this "RR" was the most anticipated happening since the coming of Stern, so every trader and even those that aren't normally traders sold into close on Friday. All of them want to buy back at lower prices, along with all the shorts.

      Its a question of who blinks first and the rest will be chasing it higher from that first blink.

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