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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • dukeufinstu dukeufinstu Nov 13, 2011 7:56 AM Flag

    Duke: Flabby Explains Everything--Part 2

    In order to understand SIRI we have to look at the broader market. Our two and a half year bull market got shattered in Aug. Therefore, even when SIRI reported great earning in Aug and Nov it meant NOTHING. SIRI is not trading on fundamentals, its price movement is controlled by the broader market. At the present the overall market is in a TRANSITIONAL PHASE. This could take two to six months to resolve itself but will either lead to a two year bull market or a 9 month bear market. In the mean time it is more of the 200 point moves a day crapola.
    While we are in the transitional phase of the market we should see SIRI have a series of moves between 1.66 and 1.86. On one of those moves we should hit 1.99. Why? If you do a 61.8% retracement from 1.27 it is 72 cents which would bring us to 1.99. Throw in a snow cap the next morning and you close that Aug gap to 2.07 I have been talking about. That is the bull case but don't get two excited because unless the overall market starts a BULL MARKET the moves in SIRI will be short lived. For my friends on the short side SIRI is required by Flabby to retest the 1.51/1.53 level at some point in the near future. All of this should take place in the next eight weeks. The trick as always is to be on the right side of the trade and right now I remain on the long side of the trade. We are looking for a catalyst to break us out of this range and Mel's appearance at the Liberty Media Investor's conference on THUR should do the trick. He already knows the 4th Q numbers since car dealers have ALREADY PLACED THEIR DEC. ORDERS. FCF will beat expectations as SIRI customers flock to renew or extend their subscriptions to beat the price increase. If you are smart you will play this move from BOTH SIDES.
    What does FLABBY say about the long term. If the market resolves itself into a BULL, then we will break above 1.99 on volume retrace to 2.44 and go onto new highs in 2012. If the market resolves itself into a BEAR, we are looking at the full 61.8% correction of the 2.39 move or 1.48 down. This would mean a bottom in SIRI at 96 cents. The broader market will dictate whether we are headed to 2.44 or 96 cents. In either case SIRI will be along for the ride and we won't know the answer until the first quarter of next year.

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    • The markets are losing value as they trend higher...... soon DOW 12,000 will equate a 50% correction

      INFLATION

    • Some musings:

      1) SIRI just 15 cents above the 2010 close on this most recent run, with everything good that has happened for them this year, but doing better than the S&P at this point YTD.

      2) Mel was actually kinda funny and interesting on the recent Liberty Media investor conference call and sounded good, but no new hard numbers really given.

      3) Marek Fuchs recent blog on sell SIRI against the grain actually makes sense!

      4) S&P latest note: A FALSE BREAKDOWN OR SOMETHING MORE? S&P indicates this may be a false breakdown and a bear trap in the market.

      Looks like a pretty good market breakdown to me with the EURO banking blues, but I suppose they can break it up again but on what exactly? Then again what was October really about?

      4) SIRI 50 DMA is around 1.70 and it looks likely to get there or below again soon. Fridays close was kinda disappointing and have you noticed almost all market Mondays have been down days to start. LR

    • Duke do you have any thoughts on the tracking stock news today and its effect on siri?

    • That 50% flabby move surprised me as well but fortunately I was prepared for it. That said, I went on to take profits too soon on the move back up thinking we would get opportunities to add along the way. Only this time, we went up just as fast as we went down...so much for the markets falling faster than they go up theory.

      As usual, I think you've hit the nail on the head here. And the next potential +/- move is making it difficult to play monkey in the middle. The Duke haters like to say you are just covering all your bases in your prediction…to those folks I say, how in the world is predicting 2 tail-risk scenarios covering ALL bases. For the past couple months, I've been sticking to cash overnight with the occasional multi-day or overnight trades. Also have found some success fading every gap with the overnight casino chips, ie leveraged ETFs. But they should still ban these stupid things.

      This market is certainly interesting. On Friday I put a limit order in to take some GMCR for 33.50, near the closure of a lower gap dating back to Feb 3. What do these guys do…they flash crash the stock to 34.06 off an open near 41.50. I didn’t get the stock but here I thought this stuff only happens in the movies. I guess the moral of the story is like Solo used to say…Expect the Unexpected. Expecting the extremes on both sides seems to be the way to go.

      • 1 Reply to wwtimewarp2000
      • This market is certainly interesting. On Friday I put a limit order in to take some GMCR for 33.50, near the closure of a lower gap dating back to Feb 3. What do these guys do…they flash crash the stock to 34.06 off an open near 41.50. I didn’t get the stock but here I thought this stuff only happens in the movies. I guess the moral of the story is like Solo used to say…Expect the Unexpected. Expecting the extremes on both sides seems to be the way to go.
        ---------------------------------------------
        just looking at posts for GMCR. Is it a good solid company?

    • I was out sailing But I like Flabby Duck Soup*

    • More useless doukche turd nuggets.....what happened to your promise to post your trades in real time?
      Liar and a fraud.

    • If AAPL can get dinged any stock can. What happened to NFLX is amazing. I don't know how much this super committee vote is going to matter in the short run. Maybe they will start coming to their senses on cuts needed and actually do them. It's so contentious. If they make the cuts it will probably be just enough to get by until elections when they can remember which branches of the government they want to eliminate. The Department of Education? Really? Revamp big time yes! But eliminate? Thanks for addressing. It is a difficult market environment for sure.

      • 1 Reply to lonerangercards
      • LR

        This is more challenging than any market I can remember. I have to admit I can't wait to dump this position. Stocks brought up a perfect outlier issue. If Iran gets bombed by Israel, this market will open a 1000 points lower and cash will be king.

        The action you pointed out in AAPL is really a harbinger of things to come. It is probably a safer bet to be a short than it is to be a long these days. When have you heard me say that?

        As I said we have sold almost everything except long term positions. We have a few special situations like this thing in SIRI but I admit I am surprised it has been a couple of weeks without a move up.

        The long term positions have been hedged against a downturn and if we lose the four month hedges we put on at the beginning of this month then so be it.

    • Have you revisted your $9 call? Please answer. Longs want to know.

    • Perhaps you can comment on your prediction last week that short interest would drop? Appears it spiked up.

      • 1 Reply to lightning602001
      • Light

        Your question on the SI is a good one. Let's take a look at my exact quote. "We may have some slight upticks here or there but we are headed down to 100M or less..."

        If you have followed SIRI for any length of time then you know that SI ALWAYS SPIKES GOING INTO AN EARNINGS CALL. It is the way the CBH hold down the price. Hence my qualifier that we will have some upticks. This weeks 195M share sell off on WED gave the shorts a chance to cover the shares they shorted in the 1.80's.

        Let's take a look at the next report before we say I got it right or wrong.

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