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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • dukeufinstu dukeufinstu May 27, 2012 8:37 AM Flag

    Duke: Black Swans Circling Everywhere--Part 2

    Speaking of Black Swans, Bloomberg has carried four articles about China in the past two weeks. The first reported that Chinese traders were cancelling orders for iron ore and copper while the ships were on the seas. It reported that warehouses were overflowing and the stuff was piling up in parking lots. The second was a HSBC report that Chinese manufacturing had contracted for the 10th month out of the last 11 while official GDP was 7.5%. The third was that China lending plunged last month. The last was by a Chinese scholar who said the data from China has always been false and explored the political reasons why it will remain false. I haven't figured out what point Bloomberg is trying to make but the BBOC is planning a 9th cut to its reserve ratio because things are great over there.
    In Europe we had bank runs in Greece, Spain, England and Sweden in the past two weeks. In Nov./Dec I told you that the economies in the the Far East would all slow and we would see recession in the UK, Europe and Brazil. All of these things have come true. I told you Greece was the key. I got the timing wrong but we shall see how the story plays out.
    I also told you that we would see SIRI print below a buck this year. Don't look at SIRI. Look at the macro market.
    Two weeks ago SIRI sat at 2.13 and I told you that a sell off was looming that would last into June. Last week I told you that we would rally to 1.95 and possibly to 2.00/2.01. We hit 2.02. This completed a 38.2 Flabby retrace. (2.41-1.78 equals 63. 63x.382 equals 24. 24 plus 1.78 equals 2.02). We closed below the 1.95 200 day MA which is bad.
    On TU we will have a TRIPLE DEATH CROSS as the 50 day MA falls below the 100day MA. The MACD, ROC, RSI, and MFI are still negative and the short term oscillator is now in OVERBOUGHT territory. The up down line still shows the stock under distribution. Dopey showed up. In the next two weeks the stock will retest the 1.78 low and fail the test. We are headed to 1.65/1.67.
    My favorite movies remain Gun Fight at the O.K. Corral and Collateral Damage and I have added Margin Call. There is something there for everyone.

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    • May 27, 2012 - Duke:
      "I also told you that we would see SIRI print below a buck this year."

      What a loser!


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • This guy is full of SH*****

    • Whom ar'nt you siri has'nt the market fact'o very positione
      stop tired ridding this horse backward whoms

      c/vet 500mg

    • Part of JNK's decline is also ex-div day right. They pulled the same crap with STD on CNBC last div, talking about the stock being off 6% when most of that decline was due to ex-div. I just watch TBT/TLT. Killer hit one out of the park with it, but he says he's now out of that technical trade. Better early than late I guess.

    • Frank

      Check out JNK and remember what I told you...just the beginning.

    • institutional investors Hold 5o%+ of the inventory

      Yep! When Institutional investors want to dump a stock that has few takers they turn to guys like Malone for a deal. His $2.15 ceiling was below market price. Had the Institutional investors dumped on the open market without the Malone deal they would have gotten even less.

      Even Malone didn't want to buy. After losing his defacto bid he was forced to buy to take Control.

    • Cash, take what you just said and apply it to your original statement.

      Don't be offended, just check your facts and update your statement. It is all good.

    • Stanley

      You refuse to answer my question. You keep saying "Check your facts," and I did. I asked you to point out where my facts are wrong. You haven't. Your words are empty unless YOU back them up with facts. As I've stated the facts I know, if you don't agree, post the facts that you feel ARE correct. You have not done so. Please do. If my facts are wrong, then correct me. Or STFU. Enough rhetoric.

    • I watched Margin Call a week or so ago and actually thought it was pretty good. It's been ahwile since I watched Ok Corral but always thought it was one of Kurt russsel's better movies. Collateral Damage-yikes.

      Your posts are still pretty good to and still enjoy reading them. Black Swan, ya those are hard to predict, but missing all the sign posts are another thing. Less than $1, Hum that would take a very nasty event. I would not mind avoiding that event one way or another. LR

    • Cash, of course you can express your self. But, please make it accurate. Was not trying to bash you.

      It is your premise so you should be the one backing up with facts. All I am saying is for your own financial safety, right or wrong, good or bad... check your numbers. You should be able to answer your own questions regarding the float and the % impacts of the 302 million shares before and after the transfer.

      Even worse than trusting someone you don't know is making your own kool-aid with poison (metaphorically speaking).

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