>>>I just want his opinion as to what Malone will do with the control when he gets it.
The people speculating about me are all funny... no, I haven't sold out and left the building. I'm just very busy now... and confident on the direction of the company. A year of solid earnings and the forecast of continued growth has done that to me. And now that we are after the March 6 date (and the current actions of Liberty)... I understand what is going to happen.
People want me to speculate on what Liberty is going to do... well the thing is, my opinion hasn't changed in 3 years. Liberty is going to take control, one way or another -- and do an RMT in order to monetize their investment in Sirius for their shareholders. The shareholders of Liberty should expect nothing less of Liberty.
Look at the reality in this... Liberty invested $12,500 into Sirius for roughly 40% of the company, when it was most vulnerable. They also pulled some interest via short term lendings. That $12,500 investment is now worth $5.77 billion. Can you say, "nice return"? Their shareholders want their portion of the return on that - and deserve one. So Liberty is going to monetize it in some way, which will be tax friendly... as they always do. That means an RMT. However, Liberty only holds 40%... it needs to be majority for them to do an RMT.
So how does Liberty take a majority control? Yes, they can buy on the market, or they can make a tender offer... but they need to buy 737.5 million shares. Doing that will be very expensive ($1.6~2.2 billion?). But if they take de facto control... then they control the Board. If they control the Board, then they can control the cost by removing the road blocks that could drive the price up... like a vocal CEO and Senior Management who promised top dollar for the company. Get it?
And people are wondering about Karmazin's stock sales plan? Really? If you're a CEO in the position of Karmazin, do you wait and see what Liberty does? To buy their way in or force their way in via a de facto takeover -- and then find yourself on the outside looking in? Sure, he'd still have his options and can sell them... but what will the stock price be then? Likely lower than it is today. No, in this situation he adopts a 10b5-1 sales plan -- knowing his time may be limited. With all the speculation surrounding what Liberty is going to do, not only will the stock price remain stable, but perhaps it will go up. He takes advantage of it an sells a good portion of his options -- taking advantage of the lofty price.
(continued in next post)